“If votes cast on Election Day decided the 2008 election,” the AP reported in September, John “McCain would have won in Florida, Colorado, North Carolina and Iowa.” That stat has always surprised me, given that it suggests late-deciders broke for the candidate of the incumbent president’s party.
Now, to be sure, John McCain was not then the incumbent. Anyway, I checked the 2008 exit polls and was fascinated by the break-down among late decides. McCain actually won those decided in the last week by a narrow margin and, by a greater margin, he won those deciding in the three days before the election.
Obama, however, won those who made up their mind on Election Day:
With the race very tight, it’s going to come down to two factors, how those late-deciders break — and how good of job each team does with its ground game (i.e., getting its voters to the polls).
Perhaps it’s a good sign then that Mitt Romney, in his “closing argument,” is at, as Jennifer Rubin put it, his “rhetorical best.”
Seems his message is more upbeat than Mr. Obama’s.