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Romney up in Minnesota

Posted by B. Daniel Blatt at 10:24 pm - November 3, 2012.
Filed under: 2012 Presidential Election

A recent poll from the American Future Fund rates Minnesota, the only state not to vote for Ronald Reagan in 1984 as a “toss-up“, with Mitt Romney enjoying a one point edge:

Romney takes 46 percent of the vote to Obama’s 45 percent in the poll, which was conducted by the GOP firm NMB Research and shared with POLITICO. The Republican presidential nominee is up 13 points among independents, ahead of Obama 49 percent to 36 percent.

That is consistent with what we’ve seen in polls across the nation, Romney enjoying a leading among independents. Given Obama’s negative closing message — and Romney’s upbeat one – it seems that those yet to decide are more likely to break for the challenger.

Via Alexander Marlow at Breitbart who reminds us that “Democrats felt it necessary to send top-surrogate Bill Clinton to the Land of 10,000 Lakes earlier this week, and [that] Paul Ryan will be campaigning there tomorrow.

Via Instapundit.



  1. Giddy up Minnesota!!!

    Comment by Dick Turpin — November 3, 2012 @ 10:40 pm - November 3, 2012

  2. NMB research was founded by Neil Newhouse, aka pollster for the Romney Campaign.

    This is a Romney Campaign external poll, using AFF as an intermediary.

    Comment by Roland Lindsey — November 3, 2012 @ 10:54 pm - November 3, 2012

  3. If Minnesota goes Red it’s over.

    Comment by Catseye — November 3, 2012 @ 11:41 pm - November 3, 2012

  4. Actually, if Wisconsin goes red, it’s over. We don’t actually need Minnesota, which is almost certainly tougher to get than Wisconsin. Minnesota is just icing on the cake. To be sure, it’s important to have icing on the cake.

    Anyway, Paul Ryan is coming here to Minnesota today (Sunday), and I am going to hear him. I’m pretty excited to see him and see the crowd he’ll draw.

    FWIW, people in Minnesota have been pretty quiet about the election, at least in my corner of the world. Not a lot of obvious excitement for Romney, but not a lot for Obama, either. Actually, I think it’s great that there’s not a lot of election talk here. I think it’s quite likely that Minnesota is full of broken-glass Romney voters who are excited to get out and vote as well as a lot of nominal Obama voters who take it for granted that Obama will win the state and are sort of ambivalent about Obama anyway. I wouldn’t bet the house on a Romney victory here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it.

    Comment by chad — November 4, 2012 @ 1:14 am - November 4, 2012

  5. I live in the Twin Cities, and I have noticed few Romney signs, but also not many Obama signs, compared to last time. And I don’t think it’s simply complacency–surely Obama supporters are more nervous about Romney than they were about McCain. But I *have* seen lots of signs for the Rep legislative/local candidates. Around here the lefties are so rabid that conservatives are hesitant to express their views, and you don’t put up Romney yard signs or put bumper stickers on your car, because you will suffer vandalism. I’d bet money that there are LOTS of people around here who voted last time for Obama but will not again, but they won’t tell that to their friends, coworkers, spouse, or pollsters. That’s the beauty of the secret ballot… you can learn from your mistake, without having to admit to anyone that you were fooled in the last election. I predict a landslide, and I’d even put money on Romney in MN.

    Comment by LostInMN — November 4, 2012 @ 1:31 am - November 4, 2012

  6. Oh… one more point, just in case anyone doesn’t know… Reagan didn’t get Minnesota in 1984 probably because Mondale is a MN son. Where Obama was born is a matter of some discussion, but I have never heard him claim to be from Minnesota. And I’ve never heard anyone in MN claim Biden is from MN. So MN is not a lock for Team O. (Is that a letter O or a zero? Like there’s a difference??)

    Comment by LostInMN — November 4, 2012 @ 1:43 am - November 4, 2012

  7. Reagan didn’t get Minnesota in 1984 probably because Mondale is a MN son.

    Yes, and even then, he won by a very narrow margin (0.16%).

    Comment by Rattlesnake — November 4, 2012 @ 2:25 am - November 4, 2012

  8. LostInMN, exactly right. The fact that Reagan didn’t carry Minnesota gives it an über-liberal aura as the state that has gone the longest without voting for a Republican president, but that of course is just because Mondale was Minnesotan. It has always been in a liberal state but these days no one believes that Minnesota is to the left of HI, CA, VT, MA, RI, IL, NY, or MD. If we don’t see Romney win MN this time, it could be a while before we see any Republican win it. But I do think it’s fallen out of the ranks of bluest states.

    And as Rattlesnake points out, Mondale’s win in Minnesota was razor thin, the closest of all 50 states in ’84.

    Comment by chad — November 4, 2012 @ 7:24 am - November 4, 2012

  9. I think Romney’s momentum in the varius “blue” states is a good sign.

    I definitely think this time around there are a lot of disillusioned Obama voters who expected Obama to be what he promised (or what they thought he was promising since Obama was an expert at talking about hope and change without really providing details-people were free to write in their own idea of what that was).

    I figure many of these people will still hold their nose and vote Obama-because they can’t imagine voting for a republican. Some may vote for a 3rd party, but others may take a chance and vote for Romney. Then of course there are those who just stay home and opt out of the process.

    I would love to see Romney take one of these traditional blue states-Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Minnesota. I am not convinced he will, but I love the fact that there is evidence that he might.

    Comment by Just Me — November 4, 2012 @ 9:23 am - November 4, 2012

  10. a few weeks ago I posted a comment saying that on my daily commute through upper middle class suburbs (Eden Prairie, Minnetonka) I saw lots of Obama signs and no Romney signs. That has now changed. On the same route two days ago I counted 11 Romney signs and 2 Obama signs. Not only are there more Romney signs than before, there are LESS Obama signs than before.

    Comment by mnscorpio — November 4, 2012 @ 9:51 am - November 4, 2012

  11. LostInMN, you are right, a lot of people around here are afraid to put up Romney signs for fear of reprisal. I think the main ideology that binds liberals together is their hatred for conservatives. It’s not uncommon to see RR signs that are knocked over or damaged, but I don’t see the same pattern of damage to Obama signs.

    Comment by mnscorpio — November 4, 2012 @ 10:00 am - November 4, 2012

  12. Chad, you will have to let us know about the crowd size today so we can see how bad the media tries to underestimate it. Whenever its a democrat crowd its reported in AOL inches, whenever its a republican crowd its the opposite.

    Comment by mnscorpio — November 4, 2012 @ 10:11 am - November 4, 2012

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