GayPatriot

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Bruce’s Final Electoral Map Prediction

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First, let me note that this is my personal PREDICTION….and not our Decision Desk’s Projection Map for Election Night.

When I last did my final prediction, I had Romney at 301. After digesting a number of pieces of information over the weekend, I’ve added The White Whale (PA) to my prediction map.

20121105-110201.jpg

So here it is, for all to mock on Wednesday if I’m wrong. And if I’m wrong, I’m gonna be wrong BIG!

-Bruce (@GayPatriot)

Comments

  2. Being a bit of an Eeyore on this one, R-271, O-267. I REALLY hope you are right. Nothing less than a large margin will do. Just too much ginning up on the D side about R voter suppression. It needs to be shown to be a landside for people to believe there wasn’t some sort of fraud.

  3. I think Romney wins Ohio and perhaps Wisconsin but I still have doubts that Romney wins PA. For one thing I am pretty sure the democratic “get out the vote” eg dead people vote once and the live ones vote twice, machine will make sure PA stays blue.

    I still think this is going to be close.

  7. the last couple of days seem like there has been a ground swell for Romney. His victory seems inevitable. The only way Obama will win is if the Chicago braintrust steals the election for their amointed one.. Remember, sabotaging Herman Cain was orchestrated by David Axelrod. He feared a black conservative would handily beat his boy. He was hot for Romney to be the nominee and saw him as an easy win for his side. On Wednesday, he will learn the truth in the saying, ¨becareful what you wish for you just might get it.¨

  8. Being true to my Inner Eeyore, I want to point out something about the Obama/Nixon analogy. Watergate (like Benghazi) was known about before the election, but didn’t blossom into a debilitating scandal until afterwards.

    Not saying history repeats, but it does rhyme. Biden is a way bigger doofus than Ford.

    BTW, that exchange in the second debate where Obama and Crowley tag-teamed Mitt accusing him of lying about Obama not calling Benghazi an act of terrorism? No surprise, but Mitt was right all along. CBS had the proof, but they sat on it.

    http://ace.mu.nu/archives/334641.php

  13. Benghazi will not go away. If O wins I think Biden will also be implicated in the scandal. Say hello to President Boehner.

    I still believe this media won’t hold him accountable and without a real ground swell to impeach I think the GOP house members will back off. I think the media is still invested in seeing Obama be super awesome and other than Fox will continue to pretend like nothing happened or will be content to see a few heads roll-(thinking Hillary and/or Petraeus are the most likely). They will, however, protect Obama.

    If the media does decide to grow a pair and really investigate and demand answers, I agree that Biden is almost as likely to get caught up in the scandal, although I don’t think the house would have the balls to impeach both of them. Biden comes away and the gaffe prone idiot will be president, but at least the evening/late night comics and SNL won’t have the “but he doesn’t really do anything to make fun of” excuse anymore.

  15. It is not enough just to impeach, we need to impeach and remove Obama and Biden and all others, should they win the election (Please God no). After Obama, who is the media going to shill for next?

  16. I still believe this media won’t hold him accountable and without a real ground swell to impeach I think the GOP house members will back off.

    I believe, if Obama is reelected, this issue will continue to grow (with a movement similar to the Tea Party) until the media and Congress are forced to pay attention to it. It just seems like there is far too much passion regarding this issue for that not to happen.

  18. My guess is 50-48 or 51-48 for Romney, in the national percentage. I don’t have an electoral vote prediction, but I think 2-3 points nationally will in some way work out to the victory that counts, in the Electoral College.

    I base this on Rasmussen showing 49-48 for Romney, plus the enthusiasm factor for Romney (or that which is lacking for Obama).

    With respect to people who think Romney is going to win big: Rasmussen is a pretty reliable pollster, not one of these crazy outfits with D+8 samples. Rasmussen should be showing a bigger Romney lead at this point, if he’s going to win big.

  19. 222 to 316? That’s in line with the Las Vegas bookies’ projections.

    The Democrats can feel it slipping away like dry sand in their hands, and they’re starting to hyperventilate. Some of the CR*P on the Liberal websites goes way-beyond open slanders into the realms of sheer pornographic fantasies. It was within their grasp…and now just out of reach.

  20. As for Benghazi: It strikes at the heart of the military’s moral contract, namely that its people are not going to be abandoned like yesterday’s trash (and then lied about). If Obama surprises me and wins, then yes, we’ll see Benghazi become His Watergate.

  23. Ok, I think your map is in line with some others BUT, I think it could go higher if:

    1. Michigan and PA go to Romney
    2. there is an upset in Illinois
    3. everyone has miscalculated on New Mexico
    4. Ohio goes to Romney (based on 2010 election results this is likely)

    In that case the margin will be even higher.

  25. Bruce:

    I concur with all your states, but put PA in the Dem column by 1% or less. I lived in the state in the mid 1980s and all of the 1990s. Western PA is more Republican than back then, especially with Obama attacking coal and probably natural gas if he wins. But I wouldn’t be shocked if Romney pulls out a narrow win in the Keystone State.

  27. There are times when it’s so boring to live in a state that has three Democrats to every Republican, and that’s the way Maryland is. That’s not to say we haven’t had more than our share of political ads, but it would take another Sandy to keep the Dems from winning here.

  28. 2. there is an upset in Illinois

    I seriously doubt there will be an upset in Illinois, but my cousin (lesbian small business owner voting her business) is going to do her part to try and make it happen. She has taken tons of crap from her gay/lesbian friends on facebook for her choice, but she is standing by her decision and defends herself nicely.

    Dottie-I live in a always battleground state (although a small one) and sometimes I wonder what it would be like to live in a state where the outcome is certain and there are no ads and few mailer advertisements.

  32. I am not in a battleground state (New Mexico), but I received 7 robocalls from Friday through today by various GOP super PACS. So they are hitting everyone.

    We are cell phone only-phone calls are the one aspect we don’t really get.

    We have gotten a few poll calls-but I refuse to answer them and my daughter would have gladly answered them but since she is only 17 she couldn’t (she probably got more pollster calls on her phone than I got on mine).

  34. Good night everyone. Enjoy your last night with Mitt Romney before he gets thrown on the scrap heap and assigned all the blame for the loss.

    I’m sure you’ll all have horrible days tomorrow, and I can’t wait to hear about them!

  39. The early voting (up to today) puts Obama ahead in key battleground states… BUT, significantly behind where He was at the same point in 2008: http://hotair.com/archives/2012/11/05/whos-winning-the-early-vote/

    Obama had better hope that millions of people wake up this morning suddenly loving Him again and realizing that, despite His lack of accomplishment and positive agenda, they want to vote for Him after all.

    And I ain’t saying it couldn’t happen. But what Levi fails to realize, is that the Left is trapped in a lose-lose proposition. I heard from this guy, Ben Ghazi, that a second Obama term would be an even greater setback to the Left than losing to Romney today.

  40. I hope everybody has seen the Black Panther in military gearand with a night stick patrolling in front of a polling station in Philadelphia. He claims he´s a poll watcher. He´s a poll watcher all right; looking out for Obama supporters while intimidating Romney supporters, as though that one station is going to decide the election. Of course , the racist Attorney General Eric Holder, sees no evil on the part of the Panthers. It´s 2008 all over again. I wonder if this is in the playbook of Chicago dirty tricks to win an election.