Bruce’s Final Electoral Map Prediction
First, let me note that this is my personal PREDICTION….and not our Decision Desk’s Projection Map for Election Night.
When I last did my final prediction, I had Romney at 301. After digesting a number of pieces of information over the weekend, I’ve added The White Whale (PA) to my prediction map.
So here it is, for all to mock on Wednesday if I’m wrong. And if I’m wrong, I’m gonna be wrong BIG!
-Bruce (@GayPatriot)
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Bruce, that’s my map too, but you don’t have Indiana solid red, and it will be. There is no contest here at the top of the ticket.
Comment by johninindy — November 5, 2012 @ 11:05 am - November 5, 2012
Being a bit of an Eeyore on this one, R-271, O-267. I REALLY hope you are right. Nothing less than a large margin will do. Just too much ginning up on the D side about R voter suppression. It needs to be shown to be a landside for people to believe there wasn’t some sort of fraud.
Comment by FeliciaC — November 5, 2012 @ 11:10 am - November 5, 2012
I think Romney wins Ohio and perhaps Wisconsin but I still have doubts that Romney wins PA. For one thing I am pretty sure the democratic “get out the vote” eg dead people vote once and the live ones vote twice, machine will make sure PA stays blue.
I still think this is going to be close.
Comment by Just Me — November 5, 2012 @ 11:21 am - November 5, 2012
I’m with Felicia on this one, I think it’ll be much closer. Whatever happens I’ll be VERY glad to say “goodbye” to this election season.
Comment by JohnAGJ — November 5, 2012 @ 11:36 am - November 5, 2012
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Pingback by #JustABlogger Electoral Votes Contest Official Entries « The Prudence Paine Papers — November 5, 2012 @ 11:37 am - November 5, 2012
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Comment by V the K — November 5, 2012 @ 11:40 am - November 5, 2012
Bruce,
Is this all 57 states?
Comment by heliotrope — November 5, 2012 @ 11:51 am - November 5, 2012
the last couple of days seem like there has been a ground swell for Romney. His victory seems inevitable. The only way Obama will win is if the Chicago braintrust steals the election for their amointed one.. Remember, sabotaging Herman Cain was orchestrated by David Axelrod. He feared a black conservative would handily beat his boy. He was hot for Romney to be the nominee and saw him as an easy win for his side. On Wednesday, he will learn the truth in the saying, ¨becareful what you wish for you just might get it.¨
Comment by Roberto — November 5, 2012 @ 11:58 am - November 5, 2012
Being true to my Inner Eeyore, I want to point out something about the Obama/Nixon analogy. Watergate (like Benghazi) was known about before the election, but didn’t blossom into a debilitating scandal until afterwards.
Not saying history repeats, but it does rhyme. Biden is a way bigger doofus than Ford.
BTW, that exchange in the second debate where Obama and Crowley tag-teamed Mitt accusing him of lying about Obama not calling Benghazi an act of terrorism? No surprise, but Mitt was right all along. CBS had the proof, but they sat on it.
http://ace.mu.nu/archives/334641.php
Comment by V the K — November 5, 2012 @ 11:59 am - November 5, 2012
“And if I’m wrong, I’m gonna be wrong BIG!”
“Is this all 57 states?”
Comment by Passing By — November 5, 2012 @ 12:35 pm - November 5, 2012
Benghazi will not go away. If O wins I think Biden will also be implicated in the scandal. Say hello to President Boehner.
Comment by Lisa — November 5, 2012 @ 12:39 pm - November 5, 2012
I did my final prediction map on Friday. Exactly the same. I would have liked to put MI in red, but I think the union push will give it to BHO by a point or two.
Comment by Chris — November 5, 2012 @ 12:42 pm - November 5, 2012
Please, please, please God, from Bruce’s map to the voting booth’s across America!
Comment by Charles — November 5, 2012 @ 12:43 pm - November 5, 2012
Benghazi will not go away. If O wins I think Biden will also be implicated in the scandal. Say hello to President Boehner.
I still believe this media won’t hold him accountable and without a real ground swell to impeach I think the GOP house members will back off. I think the media is still invested in seeing Obama be super awesome and other than Fox will continue to pretend like nothing happened or will be content to see a few heads roll-(thinking Hillary and/or Petraeus are the most likely). They will, however, protect Obama.
If the media does decide to grow a pair and really investigate and demand answers, I agree that Biden is almost as likely to get caught up in the scandal, although I don’t think the house would have the balls to impeach both of them. Biden comes away and the gaffe prone idiot will be president, but at least the evening/late night comics and SNL won’t have the “but he doesn’t really do anything to make fun of” excuse anymore.
Comment by Just Me — November 5, 2012 @ 1:23 pm - November 5, 2012
I just hope you’re right. Because if we lose this, we’re farked and I mean badly.
Comment by Patrick in Michigan — November 5, 2012 @ 1:38 pm - November 5, 2012
It is not enough just to impeach, we need to impeach and remove Obama and Biden and all others, should they win the election (Please God no). After Obama, who is the media going to shill for next?
Comment by Pamela — November 5, 2012 @ 2:07 pm - November 5, 2012
I believe, if Obama is reelected, this issue will continue to grow (with a movement similar to the Tea Party) until the media and Congress are forced to pay attention to it. It just seems like there is far too much passion regarding this issue for that not to happen.
Comment by Rattlesnake — November 5, 2012 @ 2:36 pm - November 5, 2012
My guess is 311 electoral votes for Romney.
Comment by gastorgrab — November 5, 2012 @ 2:54 pm - November 5, 2012
My guess is 50-48 or 51-48 for Romney, in the national percentage. I don’t have an electoral vote prediction, but I think 2-3 points nationally will in some way work out to the victory that counts, in the Electoral College.
I base this on Rasmussen showing 49-48 for Romney, plus the enthusiasm factor for Romney (or that which is lacking for Obama).
With respect to people who think Romney is going to win big: Rasmussen is a pretty reliable pollster, not one of these crazy outfits with D+8 samples. Rasmussen should be showing a bigger Romney lead at this point, if he’s going to win big.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 5, 2012 @ 2:59 pm - November 5, 2012
222 to 316? That’s in line with the Las Vegas bookies’ projections.
The Democrats can feel it slipping away like dry sand in their hands, and they’re starting to hyperventilate. Some of the CR*P on the Liberal websites goes way-beyond open slanders into the realms of sheer pornographic fantasies. It was within their grasp…and now just out of reach.
Comment by Ted B. (Charging Rhino) — November 5, 2012 @ 3:04 pm - November 5, 2012
As for Benghazi: It strikes at the heart of the military’s moral contract, namely that its people are not going to be abandoned like yesterday’s trash (and then lied about). If Obama surprises me and wins, then yes, we’ll see Benghazi become His Watergate.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 5, 2012 @ 3:04 pm - November 5, 2012
Bloomberg is treating Staten Island like Obama treated Benghazi.
Comment by V the K — November 5, 2012 @ 3:09 pm - November 5, 2012
[...] munch-in, my gut says tomorrow will spell political obliteration for BHO.Update III: Wow, Gay Patriot played a conservative hand. I hope he’s mis-underestimated the GOP turnout, and I think the [...]
Pingback by @PruPaine #JustABlogger Electoral Vote Entry: Don’t Settle For Egg On Obama’s Face; Give It The Full Omelette : The Other McCain — November 5, 2012 @ 3:22 pm - November 5, 2012
Ace looks at CNN’s crazy poll: The Election Is Totally Tied If You Assume D+11, Nearly 60% Higher Democratic Advantage Than In Perfect Storm Year 2008.
If Romney wins, it will be fun watching lefties heads’ explode… but then not so fun, putting up with their conspiracy theories (as they refuse to accept reality and attempt to de-legitimize Romney) for years afterward.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 5, 2012 @ 3:23 pm - November 5, 2012
Ok, I think your map is in line with some others BUT, I think it could go higher if:
1. Michigan and PA go to Romney
2. there is an upset in Illinois
3. everyone has miscalculated on New Mexico
4. Ohio goes to Romney (based on 2010 election results this is likely)
In that case the margin will be even higher.
Comment by StraightAussie — November 5, 2012 @ 4:15 pm - November 5, 2012
Bruce, Indiana is tired of Obama too. Us, Hoosiers are going red, lol.
Comment by Kathleen — November 5, 2012 @ 4:40 pm - November 5, 2012
Bruce:
I concur with all your states, but put PA in the Dem column by 1% or less. I lived in the state in the mid 1980s and all of the 1990s. Western PA is more Republican than back then, especially with Obama attacking coal and probably natural gas if he wins. But I wouldn’t be shocked if Romney pulls out a narrow win in the Keystone State.
Comment by davinci — November 5, 2012 @ 5:04 pm - November 5, 2012
[...] Bruce’s Final Electoral Map Prediction [...]
Pingback by GayPatriot » Not that anybody asked… — November 5, 2012 @ 5:45 pm - November 5, 2012
“If [Obama] wins, it will be fun watching [righ]ties heads’ explode… but then not so fun, putting up with their conspiracy theories (as they refuse to accept reality and attempt to de-legitimize [Obama]) for years afterward.”
“That’s in line with the Las Vegas bookies’ projections.”
” 5.00pm Democratic Party -375
Republican Party +285“
Comment by Passing By — November 5, 2012 @ 5:50 pm - November 5, 2012
There are times when it’s so boring to live in a state that has three Democrats to every Republican, and that’s the way Maryland is. That’s not to say we haven’t had more than our share of political ads, but it would take another Sandy to keep the Dems from winning here.
Comment by Dottie Laird — November 5, 2012 @ 6:15 pm - November 5, 2012
2. there is an upset in Illinois
I seriously doubt there will be an upset in Illinois, but my cousin (lesbian small business owner voting her business) is going to do her part to try and make it happen. She has taken tons of crap from her gay/lesbian friends on facebook for her choice, but she is standing by her decision and defends herself nicely.
Dottie-I live in a always battleground state (although a small one) and sometimes I wonder what it would be like to live in a state where the outcome is certain and there are no ads and few mailer advertisements.
Comment by Just Me — November 5, 2012 @ 6:30 pm - November 5, 2012
Roberto: You called Obama “boy”. How racist! LOL
Comment by davinci — November 5, 2012 @ 7:19 pm - November 5, 2012
Just ME:
I am not in a battleground state (New Mexico), but I received 7 robocalls from Friday through today by various GOP super PACS. So they are hitting everyone.
Comment by davinci — November 5, 2012 @ 7:24 pm - November 5, 2012
davinci
Mea culpa. I didn´t mean it in the race sense, I meant it in the boxing ring sense. Every trainer refers to his boxers as boys.
Comment by Roberto — November 5, 2012 @ 7:36 pm - November 5, 2012
I am not in a battleground state (New Mexico), but I received 7 robocalls from Friday through today by various GOP super PACS. So they are hitting everyone.
We are cell phone only-phone calls are the one aspect we don’t really get.
We have gotten a few poll calls-but I refuse to answer them and my daughter would have gladly answered them but since she is only 17 she couldn’t (she probably got more pollster calls on her phone than I got on mine).
Comment by Just Me — November 5, 2012 @ 8:10 pm - November 5, 2012
Just Me, could be that GOP see New Mexico as possibly in play. Recall reading back in 2008 that at the last minute, Obama campaign was phone-banking Arizona because they thought they might have a shot there. . .
Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — November 5, 2012 @ 10:23 pm - November 5, 2012
Good night everyone. Enjoy your last night with Mitt Romney before he gets thrown on the scrap heap and assigned all the blame for the loss.
I’m sure you’ll all have horrible days tomorrow, and I can’t wait to hear about them!
Comment by Levi — November 5, 2012 @ 10:39 pm - November 5, 2012
LOL. Levi is further proof that I’m right.
Comment by Bruce (GayPatriot) — November 5, 2012 @ 11:14 pm - November 5, 2012
So Levi, what would be the point in voting for a Benghazi coverup?
Comment by TGC — November 5, 2012 @ 11:32 pm - November 5, 2012
And Levi makes the point clear: he and his fellow Obama voters are motivated, not by love of country, but by hatred and revenge.
Comment by North Dallas Thirty — November 6, 2012 @ 1:10 am - November 6, 2012
I pray you’re right, Bruce.
We’ll fing out tomorrow. 😊
Comment by Briandb03 — November 6, 2012 @ 1:20 am - November 6, 2012
The early voting (up to today) puts Obama ahead in key battleground states… BUT, significantly behind where He was at the same point in 2008: http://hotair.com/archives/2012/11/05/whos-winning-the-early-vote/
Obama had better hope that millions of people wake up this morning suddenly loving Him again and realizing that, despite His lack of accomplishment and positive agenda, they want to vote for Him after all.
And I ain’t saying it couldn’t happen. But what Levi fails to realize, is that the Left is trapped in a lose-lose proposition. I heard from this guy, Ben Ghazi, that a second Obama term would be an even greater setback to the Left than losing to Romney today.
Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 6, 2012 @ 8:55 am - November 6, 2012
I hope everybody has seen the Black Panther in military gearand with a night stick patrolling in front of a polling station in Philadelphia. He claims he´s a poll watcher. He´s a poll watcher all right; looking out for Obama supporters while intimidating Romney supporters, as though that one station is going to decide the election. Of course , the racist Attorney General Eric Holder, sees no evil on the part of the Panthers. It´s 2008 all over again. I wonder if this is in the playbook of Chicago dirty tricks to win an election.
Comment by Roberto — November 6, 2012 @ 12:15 pm - November 6, 2012
“Obama voters are motivated, not by love of country, but by hatred and revenge“
Comment by Passing By — November 6, 2012 @ 1:34 pm - November 6, 2012
I can’t wait to hear about them!
Comment by Passing By — November 6, 2012 @ 1:35 pm - November 6, 2012