11:55PM (Bruce) – Let’s get real folks. Ohio is close, maybe headed for a recount. But both Florida and Virginia actual vote totals look like a win for Obama that is unsurmountable by Romney.
11:45PM (Bruce) – Despite the fury about Ohio right now, it seems pretty realistic to suggest that Florida and Virginia are going to Obama. The map will be updated in a second…. Again, this map is my projection. Some of these states (Nevada) haven’t been called. But it appears to be a Democrat+6 turnout, so it becomes unreasonable to assume Nevada won’t go to Obama at this point.
11:41PM (Bruce) – So I’ve updated the map in the assumption that this is over. I am damn ass furious about the fact that Ohio was called when it appears the margin is less than 1,000 votes with over 400,000 votes left. Of course, this map can change. But it seems reasonably likely that the current map will stick. I think??
11:28PM (Bruce) – Oh lordy. Here we go again…. the Ohio call is being second guessed now by Romney campaign and Karl Rove. Our media completely sucks. Why can’t we wait until EVERY VOTE IS COUNTED????
11:20PM (Bruce) – Well that appears to be it. FOX has added Iowa and that brings President Obama to 275 Electoral Votes.
I’m updating the map as I type. Just a note to defend myself…. had the election been held last Monday, I think Romney would have won. But today is Election Day.
11:15PM (Bruce) – FOX News has just called Ohio for Obama. Looks like game over.
11:10PM (Bruce) – Updated the map again. News from Florida is starting to look grim for Romney.
11:00PM (Bruce) – FOX News has finally called North Carolina…. I’d note that I called it last week. Ha. About the only thing I’ve gotten right all night it seems!!!
10:55PM (Bruce) – It is pretty clear that the Michael Barone turnout model was wrong, and the Karl Rove model is right. So with that, I’ve updated the Electoral Map above with a more realistic projection reflected. I still have a hunch about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, though I expect they will both go to Obama eventually based on the night’s trends.
10:40PM (Bruce) – Okay, I’ve updated our Electoral Projection map (above). And I’m back on my main Twitter feed (@GayPatriot).
A couple more notes, I’m still not confident of Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. So bear with me on the map!
9:57 PM (Bruce) – Hey folks! Just did my hit on Franklin Center’s election coverage. Check it out, they’ll be going all night live from Washington, DC. So I’ve updated our Decision Desk map. I’m still holding on giving Pennsylvania to Obama. I am not confident in that call quite yet and need to see more actual votes from Philly suburbs. Obama’s early lead in Western PA has now evaporated.
I am still very confident that Romney will take Florida and North Carolina. I’m aware that FOX has called New Hampshire for Obama. I’m going to check some sources on that. Be back soon.
9:15PM (Bruce) – FOX News has called Pennsylvania for Obama. I respect that call and will agree after I look at actual vote totals from some key Pennsylvania counties. Additionally, I’ll update our map to reflect Illinois going to Obama in the next 30 minutes.
9:11PM (Bruce) – NBC News projects that the Republicans will retain control of the US House of Representatives. Another early call from the GayPatriot Decision Desk from last week.
8:51PM (Bruce) – Taking a dinner break!
8:30PM ET (Bruce) – FOX News just calls Pat McCrory (R) for Governor of North Carolina. FINALLY! First Governor from Western North Carolina.
8:00PM ET (Bruce) – Many states have closed, no surprises. And no “calls” from any major news organization. I watched NBC Nightly News at 6:30PM and got the impression that the networks are being VERY conservative.
7:45PM ET (Bruce) – CORRECTION: Ace of Spades has Romney LEADING in NC & VA but no official call yet. Apologies.
BULLETIN: The Ace of Spades Decision Desk has now called North Carolina & Virginia for MITT ROMNEY. I will not be calling Virginia quite yet. I’m waiting for more information.
7:30PM Eastern (Dan): VA exit polls appear to confirm what we saw in most pre-election polls: Romney is winning independents by double digits.
7:15PM (Bruce) – No big surprises as the first batch of polls close. Of interest, Indiana has flipped from Obama to Romney. No President since FDR has won re-election and lost ground in the Electoral College.
6:00 PM ET (Bruce) – Please join Tony Katz at Franklin Center’s live coverage. I’ll be on at 9:45 PM Eastern.
5:42PM ET (Bruce) – First polls to close at 7PM ET are: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. Vermont expected to be Obama. Virginia clearly toss-up. If networks call Virginia early, that is a strong indicator of the rest of the night.
5:36PM ET (Bruce) – Since the networks all have their exit poll data, here is my first indicator of how things are going to go tonight. Tune into NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams and watch his body language and tone of voice.
More early exit poll data: By a 59-39% margin, EARLY exit polls say the economy is getting worse or staying the same.
5:30PM Eastern (Bruce) – From a very good GOP source: Initial Exit Poll data is out, only 25% of voters today said they are better off than they were four yeers ago. Bad Obama omen for tonight?
5:15PM Eastern (Bruce @GayPatriot): This is our open thread discussion of Election Night 2012. Dan and I will be updating this post throughout the evening.