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GAYPATRIOT ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE

11:55PM (Bruce) – Let’s get real folks.  Ohio is close, maybe headed for a recount.  But both Florida and Virginia actual vote totals look like a win for Obama that is unsurmountable by Romney.

11:45PM (Bruce) – Despite the fury about Ohio right now, it seems pretty realistic to suggest that Florida and Virginia are going to Obama.  The map will be updated in a second….  Again, this map is my projection.  Some of these states (Nevada) haven’t been called.  But it appears to be a Democrat+6 turnout, so it becomes unreasonable to assume Nevada won’t go to Obama at this point.

11:41PM (Bruce) – So I’ve updated the map in the assumption that this is over.  I am damn ass furious about the fact that Ohio was called when it appears the margin is less than 1,000 votes with over 400,000 votes left.  Of course, this map can change. But it seems reasonably likely that the current map will stick.  I think??

11:28PM (Bruce) – Oh lordy. Here we go again…. the Ohio call is being second guessed now by Romney campaign and Karl Rove.  Our media completely sucks.  Why can’t we wait until EVERY VOTE IS COUNTED????

11:20PM (Bruce) – Well that appears to be it.  FOX has added Iowa and that brings President Obama to 275 Electoral Votes.

I’m updating the map as I type.  Just a note to defend myself…. had the election been held last Monday, I think Romney would have won.  But today is Election Day.

11:15PM (Bruce) – FOX News has just called Ohio for Obama.  Looks like game over.

11:10PM (Bruce) – Updated the map again.  News from Florida is starting to look grim for Romney.

11:00PM (Bruce) – FOX News has finally called North Carolina…. I’d note that I called it last week.  Ha.  About the only thing I’ve gotten right all night it seems!!!

10:55PM (Bruce) – It is pretty clear that the Michael Barone turnout model was wrong, and the Karl Rove model is right.  So with that, I’ve updated the Electoral Map above with a more realistic projection reflected.  I still have a hunch about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, though I expect they will both go to Obama eventually based on the night’s trends.

10:40PM (Bruce) – Okay, I’ve updated our Electoral Projection map (above).  And I’m back on my main Twitter feed (@GayPatriot).

A couple more notes, I’m still not confident of Pennsylvania or Wisconsin.  So bear with me on the map!

9:57 PM (Bruce) – Hey folks!  Just did my hit on Franklin Center’s election coverage.  Check it out, they’ll be going all night live from Washington, DC.  So I’ve updated our Decision Desk map.  I’m still holding on giving Pennsylvania to Obama.  I am not confident in that call quite yet and need to see more actual votes from Philly suburbs.  Obama’s early lead in Western PA has now evaporated.

I am still very confident that Romney will take Florida and North Carolina.  I’m aware that FOX has called New Hampshire for Obama.  I’m going to check some sources on that.  Be back soon.

9:15PM (Bruce) – FOX News has called Pennsylvania for Obama.  I respect that call and will agree after I look at actual vote totals from some key Pennsylvania counties.  Additionally, I’ll update our map to reflect Illinois going to Obama in the next 30 minutes.

9:11PM (Bruce) – NBC News projects that the Republicans will retain control of the US House of Representatives.  Another early call from the GayPatriot Decision Desk from last week.

8:51PM (Bruce) –   Taking a dinner break!

8:30PM ET (Bruce) FOX News just calls Pat McCrory (R) for Governor of North Carolina.  FINALLY! First Governor from Western North Carolina.

8:00PM ET (Bruce) – Many states have closed, no surprises.  And no “calls” from any major news organization. I watched NBC Nightly News at 6:30PM and got the impression that the networks are being VERY conservative.

7:45PM ET (Bruce) – CORRECTION: Ace of Spades has Romney LEADING in NC & VA but no official call yet. Apologies.

BULLETIN:  The Ace of Spades Decision Desk has now called North Carolina & Virginia for MITT ROMNEY.  I will not be calling Virginia quite yet.  I’m waiting for more information.

7:30PM Eastern (Dan):  VA exit polls appear to confirm what we saw in most pre-election polls:  Romney is winning independents by double digits.

7:15PM (Bruce) No big surprises as the first batch of polls close.  Of interest, Indiana has flipped from Obama to Romney.  No President since FDR has won re-election and lost ground in the Electoral College.

6:00 PM ET (Bruce) – Please join Tony Katz at Franklin Center’s live coverage.  I’ll be on at 9:45 PM Eastern.

5:42PM ET (Bruce) – First polls to close at 7PM ET are: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia.  Vermont expected to be Obama.  Virginia clearly toss-up.  If networks call Virginia early, that is a strong indicator of the rest of the night.

5:36PM ET (Bruce) Since the networks all have their exit poll data, here is my first indicator of how things are going to go tonight.  Tune into NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams and watch his body language and tone of voice.

More early exit poll data: By a 59-39% margin, EARLY exit polls say the economy is getting worse or staying the same.

5:30PM Eastern (Bruce) – From a very good GOP source: Initial Exit Poll data is out, only 25% of voters today said they are better off than they were four yeers ago.  Bad Obama omen for tonight?

5:15PM Eastern (Bruce @GayPatriot): This is our open thread discussion of Election Night 2012.  Dan and I will be updating this post throughout the evening.

 

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65 Comments

  1. Hey, that reminds me. How come liberals don’t give a shit about the victims of Sandy? Obasuck can show up, get his pic taken and then blow them off to run to his next fundraiser.

    Just like Benghazi, Americans are left behind.

    Comment by TGC — November 7, 2012 @ 12:50 am - November 7, 2012

  2. believe that Saddam had weapons

    But he did. He actually had stocks of chemical weapons (which are WMD), that he wasn’t supposed to have. Plus ongoing research into nuclear & bio, that he wasn’t supposed to have. I know you missed that chapter, foolish Levi. I’m just repeating it for the record.

    that Obama is a foreigner

    But Obama’s own literary biography said that He was, for over ten years. Guess you missed that part too, Levi.

    and that liberalism is about begging for handouts

    But it is.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 7, 2012 @ 12:50 am - November 7, 2012

  3. Not only that, but Obama has Fast and Furious on his hands, as well. The next chapter will be very interesting as well as full of hardship. We could have a President Biden before 2016…at least he isn’t as mean.

    Comment by AZ Mo in NYC — November 7, 2012 @ 12:50 am - November 7, 2012

  4. That’s what is really making me laugh here.

    Levi is the most foul and unhappy person posting on this board tonight, and the person he ostensibly supports won.

    This is going to be a fun next four years. 🙂

    Comment by North Dallas Thirty — November 7, 2012 @ 12:51 am - November 7, 2012

  5. CNN now shows Obama edging in the popular vote; but barely. Percentages are still 49-49.

    CA probably will push Obama over 50. Wouldn’t it be funny though, if it didn’t?

    In any event, Obama will have the noble distinction of being the first president since Roosevelt to be re-elected with a clear LOSS of support from the American people.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 7, 2012 @ 1:02 am - November 7, 2012

  6. Obama lied, people died.

    Contrary to your crappy left-wing mythology, Levi, Bush never did lie about Iraq.

    You’re never going to believe it, of course. Admitting that Bush lied about Iraq would acknowledge far too much about the deficiencies of the modern Republican Party, because it would mean, you know, that you guys elected a war criminal twice. Colin Powell goes to the UN waving anthrax around, Bush talks about aluminum tubes in his State of the Union, Donald Rumsfeld says he knows where the weapons are… all based on less than nothing. Weren’t you just talking about dumb people being confused and manipulated by politicians?

    And as those wars dragged on and on and no weapons were found and no kind of occupation plan was implemented and as our casualties piled up, where were the Republicans to call for investigations? Why didn’t the conservatives want to understand that intelligence failure? Why weren’t conservatives complaining about that failure of leadership? Conservatives need to know every detail and have a complete timeline about Benghazi, but man, just try keeping their interest by describing the mountains of evidence that demonstrate how massively Bush lied and failed in Iraq.

    He was sincerely trying to protect Americans. Obama? Not so much. Americans dying is “not optimal”, but let it happen, even manufacture a FALSE cover story for it, to win an election.

    Bush was trying to protect Americans… by sending Americans into a pointless, hopeless war. That doesn’t make sense. That’s not a good way to protect Americans, especially when you’re lying through your teeth because you’re letting Dick Cheney run your administration. Anyway….

    This ‘not optimal’ quote you guys bandy about is taking woefully out of context. Obama let it happen? Like, how do you figure that went down? Was he watching on a monitor or something? He had the power to intervene and he declined? You’re full of it. Oh, and the false cover story. I’d love to hear about that. I guess this has something to do with the video?

    Election’s over, your Benghazi play didn’t work, have some respect for the dead and stop politicizing a tragedy.

    Comment by Levi — November 7, 2012 @ 1:06 am - November 7, 2012

  7. Was he watching on a monitor or something? He had the power to intervene and he declined?

    That’s one story being floated by government leaks, yes. I don’t know yet for sure that it was 100% that way.

    stop politicizing a tragedy

    And that’s what makes you a leftie, Levi. Obama LIED, flat-out LIED about it. His White House made up a COMPLETELY FALSE cover story for the tragedy, and stuck to it 2 weeks. And yet you can blame… not them… but rather, the people who dare to notice.

    Somewhere, Levi, George Orwell is sort of proud of you.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 7, 2012 @ 1:15 am - November 7, 2012

  8. Last update for the night, to where I started at comment 3… PMs in Asia are still up for the night. My guess is that their PM traders were following the election newsflow all along, and assuming the Obama == Inflation (or Dollar Devaluation) script that I had outlined.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 7, 2012 @ 1:21 am - November 7, 2012

  9. Levi has proven AGAIN, that he is just a big ball of ill-informed hatred…which pretty much exemplifies the Progressive fascist movement.

    Comment by AZ Mo in NYC — November 7, 2012 @ 1:27 am - November 7, 2012

  10. Why didn’t the conservatives want to understand that intelligence failure? Why weren’t conservatives complaining about that failure of leadership?

    But there were investigations. MANY.

    The investigations all found the same thing: that, whatever the imperfections of intelligence had been, the world intelligence communities had believed sincerely that Saddam had WMD stocks, and had advised everyone accordingly, including the Bush adminstration. And were, again, at least partly right about it.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 7, 2012 @ 1:27 am - November 7, 2012

  11. (continued) So, yeah. Having had all those many investigations into Iraq, let’s now have one or two into Benghazi.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 7, 2012 @ 1:28 am - November 7, 2012

  12. That’s one story being floated by government leaks, yes. I don’t know yet for sure that it was 100% that way.

    Oh but I’m sure you’re right. Obama was watching on a monitor, he said the words “I don’t care what happens,” then went back to playing XBox.

    Meanwhile, let’s never even pretend to care about what was going on in the Bush White House before and during the Iraq War!

    And that’s what makes you a leftie, Levi. Obama LIED, flat-out LIED about it. His White House made up a COMPLETELY FALSE cover story for the tragedy, and stuck to it 2 weeks. And yet you can blame… not them… but rather, the people who dare to notice.

    Somewhere, Levi, George Orwell is sort of proud of you.

    What was the lie? Like, what are you talking about?

    I don’t think you understand what a cover up is. Suppose we had a stealth bomber go down in North Korea that was carrying Spanish bullion and the Ark of the Covenant. The government might be wise to cover up that incident and say it was a weather balloon or the Aurora Borealis. Like, the point of a cover up is that you get to pretend like the terribly embarrassing thing never happened. Do you understand that?

    So what about Benghazi was a cover up? The salient facts – that the consulate was attacked and that our guys had been killed – were known immediately. Did Obama try to cover that up? No. So what’s he trying to cover up? Where have they not been forthcoming? What is the COMPLETELY FALSE cover story that he stuck to for 2 weeks? Most importantly, if this is such a big deal and if this is such a huge issue, why was your candidate unable to articulate a criticism more coherent and relevant than “Uh, you didn’t call it an act of terror quickly enough.” ?

    Obama lied and Bush didn’t, because oh yeah actually we did find weapons in Iraq so it was well worth the effort and Bush is a war hero and was right all along. And you’re going to invoke George Orwell? Pffft.

    Comment by Levi — November 7, 2012 @ 1:36 am - November 7, 2012

  13. But there were investigations. MANY.

    The investigations all found the same thing: that, whatever the imperfections of intelligence had been, the world intelligence communities had believed sincerely that Saddam had WMD stocks, and had advised everyone accordingly, including the Bush adminstration. And were, again, at least partly right about it.

    None of this is true. There was widespread international agreement that the invasion was a bad idea, and our own intelligence was manipulated to produce the results that Bush and Cheney desired. They decided to invade no matter what and plucked out a few bits of cherry-picked intelligence to scare the public into going along with it. This couldn’t be more obvious, especially now that we can look back at the whole scope of the war. I’m sure they probably thought they’d find weapons, but that doesn’t mean they did their due diligence, and that doesn’t mean they didn’t willfully lie to the American people to trick them into supporting the war.

    And this bit about them being ‘partly right.’ Rusted out shells filled with trace amounts of inert mustard gas buried in the middle of the desert that Saddam probably didn’t even know about do not constitute any kind of threat to, well, anybody.

    Comment by Levi — November 7, 2012 @ 1:47 am - November 7, 2012

  14. I don’t know if Levi has noticed, because he hasn’t seen a TV read the news or anything, but Bush hasn’t been president in 4 years. Hey, Bush isn’t president anymore. Did you know that Barrack Hussein Obama was re-selected as president? What happened to Forward?

    Comment by AZ Mo in NYC — November 7, 2012 @ 2:40 am - November 7, 2012

  15. Ah, Levi again trots out the big lie. It’s all that the little fascist knows.

    Let’s recap. Levi believes Bush Allowed 9/11, but Obama did everything possible to save Ambassador Stevens.

    No matter how many times it is pointed out to him, Levi believes there were no WMD in Iraq, and that the land was healthy and prosperous until we liberated them.

    Now hush Levi, the adults are talking.

    Comment by The_Livewire — November 7, 2012 @ 8:44 am - November 7, 2012

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