Youth vote could tip to Republicans as it tipped to the Gipper
In 1980, Jimmy Carter narrowly edged Ronald Reagan among voters under 30, with the Gipper scoring just 44% of the twentysomething vote. Four years later, the Gipper ]increased his share of the youth vote to nearly 60%.
And while Barack Obama did just as well among young voters last month as the Gipper did in 1984, his share of the young vote has declined since his initial election. Young voters grew to appreciate Reagan for his accomplishments; they seem more enchanted with Mr. Obama’s image.
Some seem to think that that the Republican’s current poor showing among young voters suggests the party could lose an “entire generation” to Democrats. But, this notion assumes that voters party identification remains fixed. And that is hardly the case. How will these young voters feel about Mr. Obama and his Democratic policies when the job market for their generation continues as it has these past for years? Come 2016 (even 2014), they could be quite open to a Republican message expressed in terms similar to those offered by Reagan in the 1980s.
That said, the GOP today doesn’t so much have a youth vote problem as it has an ethnic problem. Ben Domenech reminds us that
Mitt Romney won white voters under 30, even winning white women under 30. The youth voter barrier to the Republican Party is really the same barrier as it is for all age demographics: an ethnic barrier which concedes black, Hispanic, and Asian voters to Democrats.
(Read the whole thing even as the piece’s focus is on a different issue than this piece.) If Mitt Romney could have made, as Ronald Reagan did, a pitch to all Americans, he likely would have done much better among young voter of all backgrounds.
And that must be the task of future Republican contenders.
15 Comments
RSS feed for comments on this post.
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
And let’s not forget, my friend, that the youth vote went for Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1976 (and, as I recall, for McGovern in 1972) only to shift sharply to Reagan in 1980 and 1984.
Comment by Rhymes With Right — December 4, 2012 @ 9:34 am - December 4, 2012
You want to get more of the youth vote? Study Ron Paul and ask yourself, “Why did so many young voters become fanatical supporters of a septuagenarian flake?” Answer: It wasn’t the man, it was his ideas.
1. Get the Federal Leviathan out of our bedrooms… and everywhere else we don’t want them.
2. Don’t start wars you don’t intend to win.
Now, if the GOP can find someone to articulate those ideas… who doesn’t have a history of publishing anti-semitic slurs in his official newsletter, and won’t say something stupid when asked about abortion-rape… they might make progress.
But, instead they’ll go with moderate establishment hacks and then wonder why they always get their asses handed to them.
Comment by V the K — December 4, 2012 @ 11:32 am - December 4, 2012
If Ben Domenech quoted Mike Murphy correctly about moving the Republican Party away from conservatism, I´m surprised. According to Ben Murphy has made his millions on campaigns. He should know that money is the mother´s milk of politics, not ideas, nor sincerity, or likeability. Out of curiosity, I looked into Utah´s 4th District election results. Those of us who saw the Republican convention and heard the very attractive Mayor Mia Love speak, believed that she would be the first African American woman in the Republican Caucus. The results were shocking. She lead her Democrat opponent in polls throughout, yet lost by 3/10ths 0f a percent. Why? He outspent her 6 to 1, and he has over one million dollars in his war chest for reelection.
Maybe the Republican Party doesn´t have as many deep pockets as the Democrats to get the message out to various demographic groups. Secondly, maybe we don´t have the talent in advertising and promotion that the Democrats have. Case in point; the fiscal cliff. Obama, as Presidents gets prime time news to campaign to trash the Republicans. House Speaker Boehner goes on the Sunday morning talk shows which aren´t which aren´t primetime. Somebody should buy advertising time to say if we go over the cliff it´s the fault of President Obama and the Democrats for their instransigence in not wanting to cut spending.
Somebody has to call out the Democrats for what they are, spendthrifts. Their attitude is we won, so it´s my way or the highway. I should hope this was not the reason for which Obama was reelected. It takes more than Rush Limbaugh. We need to use social network and primetime tv.
Comment by Roberto — December 4, 2012 @ 12:30 pm - December 4, 2012
http://www.towleroad.com/2012/12/waldmanwaywire.html
Comment by Vince Smetana — December 4, 2012 @ 12:37 pm - December 4, 2012
The main disadvantage Republicans have is that the left owns the culture. It’s rare to see movie, or TV show, or an awards show where Republicans aren’t bashed or stereotyped. You never see a liberal portrayed as corrupt, incompetent, or mean in the entertainment media.
Comment by V the K — December 4, 2012 @ 12:38 pm - December 4, 2012
If republicans dropped the social issues, the anti-illegal alien rhetoric, abortion, talking about rape, saying the earth’s age is an open question, and instead talked about how fiscal conservative policies can bring prosperity to everyone, I think the democratic party would die – and fast.
But right now the extremists like Focus on the Family, Bachman, Palin, Steele and losers like Akin are the face of the republican party. This crew needs to be dropped otherwise the youth vote will be lost forever.
Comment by mike — December 4, 2012 @ 9:18 pm - December 4, 2012
LOL.
What an entertaining argument.
Comment by North Dallas Thirty — December 4, 2012 @ 9:56 pm - December 4, 2012
But right now the extremists like Focus on the Family, Bachman, Palin, Steele and losers like Akin are the face of the republican party. This crew needs to be dropped otherwise the youth vote will be lost forever.
Comment by mike — December 4, 2012 @ 9:18 pm – December 4, 2012
Oh, it’s so funny when the moocher and looter mike wants to try to whine about “faces of the party”.
Let’s see what he stands for, votes for, and endorses, shall we?
Oh, but as the saying goes, it gets better!
But wait — we have the ultimate winner here.
So what do we see? We see mike making it clear that you can cheat on your taxes, cheat on your expense reports, and outright steal from the government to fly around in your private plane — all matters of fiscal policy, mind you — as long as you have the right position on “social issues”.
Now watch as the moocher and looter mike whines and cries and refuses to answer the questions. That’s because the moocher and looter isn’t acting rationally; he’s just being a stupid racist bigot for Obama, like his fellow racist bigot, and he knows it.
Comment by North Dallas Thirty — December 4, 2012 @ 10:10 pm - December 4, 2012
The Republican Party is squishy and moderate. Neither Bachmann nor Focus on the Family are representative of it. The media will portray the Republican Party as extreme regardless of what it does.
Comment by Rattlesnake — December 4, 2012 @ 10:25 pm - December 4, 2012
Romney DID make a pitch to all Americans. His policies would have helped the economy, regardless of people’s race. Different races as a whole just have different rates of average party identification and ideology.
Comment by Mitch — December 4, 2012 @ 10:39 pm - December 4, 2012
Suggested reading: Victor Davis Hanson beautifully encapsulates the twisted thinking of socialist liberals like concern-troll mike.
Comment by North Dallas Thirty — December 4, 2012 @ 10:42 pm - December 4, 2012
And also, here’s concern-troll mike and his Barack Obama’s latest example of an “intelligent” argument: making videos showing “the rich” urinating on “the poor”.
Obama supporters like concern-troll mike are really nothing more than worthless screaming children.
Comment by North Dallas Thirty — December 4, 2012 @ 10:51 pm - December 4, 2012
Lower case mike knows that if the GOP tells social conservatives to pound sand, they will lose half their base and cease to exist as a viable party. The USA will then become the one party Democrat state he really wants.
Comment by V the K — December 5, 2012 @ 7:01 am - December 5, 2012
V the K
Point well taken. However, I don´t believe it is so much the message as it is money. Democrats outspend us as I showed in my comment #3 above. Isn´t it strange that seven of the ten wealthiest legislators are Democrats? Republicans don´t attack. Taking the high road these days leads to defeat. It´s like the late baseball manager of the old New York Giants used to say, nice guys finish last. The Party can´t get the free time that Obama and Democrats get in the main stream media, so they should buy the time to blame, as I said above, the Democrats for not wanting to cut spending as the cause for possibly going over the fiscal cliff. When we´re six months into the new term and the economy has tanked that would be the time to rent billboards; have a picture of Mitt Romney asking, ¨Are you having buyer´s remorse? Do you wish you could change your vote? In the next election, Vote Republican!¨
Comment by Roberto — December 5, 2012 @ 12:35 pm - December 5, 2012
Thanks for that. It showed a) one of our angry drive-by commenters in one of his native habitats; b) that Ari Waldman obviously lives in the NYC metro bubble and within his personal echo chamber; and c) that the tone of comments on Towleroad hasn’t changed since I last visited at least several years ago.
Comment by RSG — December 6, 2012 @ 4:54 am - December 6, 2012