Gay Patriot Header Image

Youth vote could tip to Republicans as it tipped to the Gipper

In 1980, Jimmy Carter narrowly edged Ronald Reagan among voters under 30, with the Gipper scoring just 44% of the twentysomething vote. Four years later, the Gipper ]increased his share of the youth vote to nearly 60%.

And while Barack Obama did just as well among young voters last month as the Gipper did in 1984, his share of the young vote has declined since his initial election.  Young voters grew to appreciate Reagan for his accomplishments; they seem more enchanted with Mr. Obama’s image.

Some seem to think that that the Republican’s current poor showing among young voters suggests the party could lose an “entire generation”  to Democrats.  But, this notion assumes that voters party identification remains fixed.  And that is hardly the case.  How will these young voters feel about Mr. Obama and his Democratic policies when the job market for their generation continues as it has these past for years?  Come 2016 (even 2014), they could be quite open to a Republican message expressed in terms similar to those offered by Reagan in the 1980s.

That said, the GOP today doesn’t so much have a youth vote problem as it has an ethnic problem.  Ben Domenech reminds us that

Mitt Romney won white voters under 30, even winning white women under 30. The youth voter barrier to the Republican Party is really the same barrier as it is for all age demographics: an ethnic barrier which concedes black, Hispanic, and Asian voters to Democrats.

(Read the whole thing even as the piece’s focus is on a different issue than this piece.)  If Mitt Romney could have made, as Ronald Reagan did, a pitch to all Americans, he likely would have done much better among young voter of all backgrounds.

And that must be the task of future Republican contenders.



  1. And let’s not forget, my friend, that the youth vote went for Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1976 (and, as I recall, for McGovern in 1972) only to shift sharply to Reagan in 1980 and 1984.

    Comment by Rhymes With Right — December 4, 2012 @ 9:34 am - December 4, 2012

  2. You want to get more of the youth vote? Study Ron Paul and ask yourself, “Why did so many young voters become fanatical supporters of a septuagenarian flake?” Answer: It wasn’t the man, it was his ideas.

    1. Get the Federal Leviathan out of our bedrooms… and everywhere else we don’t want them.

    2. Don’t start wars you don’t intend to win.

    Now, if the GOP can find someone to articulate those ideas… who doesn’t have a history of publishing anti-semitic slurs in his official newsletter, and won’t say something stupid when asked about abortion-rape… they might make progress.

    But, instead they’ll go with moderate establishment hacks and then wonder why they always get their asses handed to them.

    Comment by V the K — December 4, 2012 @ 11:32 am - December 4, 2012

  3. If Ben Domenech quoted Mike Murphy correctly about moving the Republican Party away from conservatism, I´m surprised. According to Ben Murphy has made his millions on campaigns. He should know that money is the mother´s milk of politics, not ideas, nor sincerity, or likeability. Out of curiosity, I looked into Utah´s 4th District election results. Those of us who saw the Republican convention and heard the very attractive Mayor Mia Love speak, believed that she would be the first African American woman in the Republican Caucus. The results were shocking. She lead her Democrat opponent in polls throughout, yet lost by 3/10ths 0f a percent. Why? He outspent her 6 to 1, and he has over one million dollars in his war chest for reelection.

    Maybe the Republican Party doesn´t have as many deep pockets as the Democrats to get the message out to various demographic groups. Secondly, maybe we don´t have the talent in advertising and promotion that the Democrats have. Case in point; the fiscal cliff. Obama, as Presidents gets prime time news to campaign to trash the Republicans. House Speaker Boehner goes on the Sunday morning talk shows which aren´t which aren´t primetime. Somebody should buy advertising time to say if we go over the cliff it´s the fault of President Obama and the Democrats for their instransigence in not wanting to cut spending.
    Somebody has to call out the Democrats for what they are, spendthrifts. Their attitude is we won, so it´s my way or the highway. I should hope this was not the reason for which Obama was reelected. It takes more than Rush Limbaugh. We need to use social network and primetime tv.

    Comment by Roberto — December 4, 2012 @ 12:30 pm - December 4, 2012


    Comment by Vince Smetana — December 4, 2012 @ 12:37 pm - December 4, 2012

  5. The main disadvantage Republicans have is that the left owns the culture. It’s rare to see movie, or TV show, or an awards show where Republicans aren’t bashed or stereotyped. You never see a liberal portrayed as corrupt, incompetent, or mean in the entertainment media.

    Comment by V the K — December 4, 2012 @ 12:38 pm - December 4, 2012

  6. If republicans dropped the social issues, the anti-illegal alien rhetoric, abortion, talking about rape, saying the earth’s age is an open question, and instead talked about how fiscal conservative policies can bring prosperity to everyone, I think the democratic party would die – and fast.

    But right now the extremists like Focus on the Family, Bachman, Palin, Steele and losers like Akin are the face of the republican party. This crew needs to be dropped otherwise the youth vote will be lost forever.

    Comment by mike — December 4, 2012 @ 9:18 pm - December 4, 2012

  7. If republicans dropped the social issues, the anti-illegal alien rhetoric, abortion, talking about rape, saying the earth’s age is an open question, and instead talked about how fiscal conservative policies can bring prosperity to everyone, I think the democratic party would die – and fast.

    Comment by mike — December 4, 2012 @ 9:18 pm – December 4, 2012


    What an entertaining argument.

    Campbell Brown: If one of your daughters asked you — and maybe they already have — “Daddy, did god really create the world in 6 days?,” what would you say?

    Barack Obama: I’m trying to remember if we’ve had this conversation. What I’ve said to them is that I believe that God created the universe and that the six days in the Bible may not be six days as we understand it — it may not be 24-hour days. And that’s what I believe. I know there’s always a debate between those who read the Bible literally and those who don’t, and that I think is a legitimate debate within the Christian community of which I’m a part. You know, my belief is that the story the Bible tells about God creating this magnificent Earth on which we live, that that is essentially true, that is fundamentally true. Now, whether it happened exactly as we might understand it reading the text of the Bible? That, you know, I don’t presume to know.

    So frankly, mike, you’re just plain lying.

    And you’re not even good at it. Everyone here knows you voted for Obama and gushed over him. Everyone here knows that you worship government and say that government builds everything. Everyone here knows you voted for Obama because you are obsessed with social issues, unlimited welfare and fraudulent voting for illegal aliens, unlimited government funding abortion, and antireligious bigotry.

    What you are is a pig at the trough who is trying to rationalize why he voted based on promises that he would get to loot and mooch everyone else’s food.

    You don’t have a single sane argument, mike. All you and your Obama did was rant that Romney was a murderer, lie about his taxes, lie about his family, lie about his personal life, lie about his business, and call anyone who dared criticize Obama a racist.

    And you lapped it up. You ignored everything, EVERYTHING about fiscal policy and voted based on Obama’s lies.

    It’s amazing how desperate you looters and moochers are to make noble what you are, which is nothing more than lazy thieves. But no one believes that you will stop stealing, mike, especially since your Obama has promised you that you can steal even more as long as you swear complete and total allegiance to him.

    Comment by North Dallas Thirty — December 4, 2012 @ 9:56 pm - December 4, 2012

  8. But right now the extremists like Focus on the Family, Bachman, Palin, Steele and losers like Akin are the face of the republican party. This crew needs to be dropped otherwise the youth vote will be lost forever.

    Comment by mike — December 4, 2012 @ 9:18 pm – December 4, 2012

    Oh, it’s so funny when the moocher and looter mike wants to try to whine about “faces of the party”.

    Let’s see what he stands for, votes for, and endorses, shall we?

    Now, back taxes have been a problem for the Obama-Biden administration. You may recall early on that Tom Daschle was the president’s top pick to run the Health and Human Services Department. But it turned out the former Democratic senator, who was un-elected from South Dakota in 2004, owed something like $120,000 to the IRS for things from his subsequent benefactor that he just forgot to pay taxes on. You know how that is. $120G’s here or there. So he dropped out.

    And then we learned this guy Timothy Geithner owed something like $42,000 in back taxes and penalties to the IRS, which is one of the agencies that he’d be in charge of as secretary of the Treasury. The fine fellow who’s supposed to know about handling everyone else’s money. In the end this was excused by Washington’s bipartisan CYA culture as one of those inadvertent accidental oversights that somehow never seem to happen on the side of paying too much taxes.

    And under Geithner’s expert guidance the U.S. economy has been, well, wow! Just look at it.

    Privacy laws prevent release of individual tax delinquents’ names. But we do know that as of the end of 2009, 41 people inside Obama’s very own White House owe the government they’re allegedly running a total of $831,055 in back taxes. That would cover a lot of special chocolate desserts in the White House Mess.

    Oh, but as the saying goes, it gets better!

    Ohio Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown was more than four months delinquent in paying taxes on his Washington, D.C., apartment and had to pay a penalty and interest last week.

    This was not the first time, records show.

    Brown also was delinquent in 2006 and 2007 and paid penalties and interest, according to tax records from the District of Columbia.

    But wait — we have the ultimate winner here.

    Missouri Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill admitted Monday that she had failed to pay about $287,000 in back taxes and will sell a private plane that has created considerable controversy as she prepares to run for a second term in 2012…..

    The tax revelations are the only the latest problem for McCaskill involving the plane,however.

    In the wake of a Politico report that had billed the government for her travel on the aircraft, she quickly reimbursed taxpayers for the trips, hoping to avoid a protracted political problem.

    But, it was then revealed that she had billed taxpayers for a purely political trip — deepening her potential exposure on the issue.

    So what do we see? We see mike making it clear that you can cheat on your taxes, cheat on your expense reports, and outright steal from the government to fly around in your private plane — all matters of fiscal policy, mind you — as long as you have the right position on “social issues”.

    Now watch as the moocher and looter mike whines and cries and refuses to answer the questions. That’s because the moocher and looter isn’t acting rationally; he’s just being a stupid racist bigot for Obama, like his fellow racist bigot, and he knows it.

    Comment by North Dallas Thirty — December 4, 2012 @ 10:10 pm - December 4, 2012

  9. The Republican Party is squishy and moderate. Neither Bachmann nor Focus on the Family are representative of it. The media will portray the Republican Party as extreme regardless of what it does.

    Comment by Rattlesnake — December 4, 2012 @ 10:25 pm - December 4, 2012

  10. Romney DID make a pitch to all Americans. His policies would have helped the economy, regardless of people’s race. Different races as a whole just have different rates of average party identification and ideology.

    Comment by Mitch — December 4, 2012 @ 10:39 pm - December 4, 2012

  11. Suggested reading: Victor Davis Hanson beautifully encapsulates the twisted thinking of socialist liberals like concern-troll mike.

    Comment by North Dallas Thirty — December 4, 2012 @ 10:42 pm - December 4, 2012

  12. And also, here’s concern-troll mike and his Barack Obama’s latest example of an “intelligent” argument: making videos showing “the rich” urinating on “the poor”.

    Obama supporters like concern-troll mike are really nothing more than worthless screaming children.

    Comment by North Dallas Thirty — December 4, 2012 @ 10:51 pm - December 4, 2012

  13. Lower case mike knows that if the GOP tells social conservatives to pound sand, they will lose half their base and cease to exist as a viable party. The USA will then become the one party Democrat state he really wants.

    Comment by V the K — December 5, 2012 @ 7:01 am - December 5, 2012

  14. V the K

    Point well taken. However, I don´t believe it is so much the message as it is money. Democrats outspend us as I showed in my comment #3 above. Isn´t it strange that seven of the ten wealthiest legislators are Democrats? Republicans don´t attack. Taking the high road these days leads to defeat. It´s like the late baseball manager of the old New York Giants used to say, nice guys finish last. The Party can´t get the free time that Obama and Democrats get in the main stream media, so they should buy the time to blame, as I said above, the Democrats for not wanting to cut spending as the cause for possibly going over the fiscal cliff. When we´re six months into the new term and the economy has tanked that would be the time to rent billboards; have a picture of Mitt Romney asking, ¨Are you having buyer´s remorse? Do you wish you could change your vote? In the next election, Vote Republican!¨

    Comment by Roberto — December 5, 2012 @ 12:35 pm - December 5, 2012

  15. 4.

    Comment by Vince Smetana — December 4, 2012 @ 12:37 pm – December 4, 2012

    Thanks for that. It showed a) one of our angry drive-by commenters in one of his native habitats; b) that Ari Waldman obviously lives in the NYC metro bubble and within his personal echo chamber; and c) that the tone of comments on Towleroad hasn’t changed since I last visited at least several years ago.

    Comment by RSG — December 6, 2012 @ 4:54 am - December 6, 2012

RSS feed for comments on this post.

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.