Should the Senate immigration bill (or something similar) pass the House and be signed into law by President Obama, Marco Rubio’s political career will likely end with the 2016 elections. Conservatives in the party will be upset and will likely put up a candidate to oppose him the 2016 GOP primary (for the charismatic incumbent’s U.S. Senate seat).
Should Congress fail to pass comprehensive immigration reform, by the time the 2016 elections roll around, most people will have forgotten the past few months of negotiations and debate (on this issue) and will remember Senator Rubio for his conservative record and his Reaganesque manner of speaking.
My sense (and this is just a sense) is that Rubio is banking on the House to hold the line and not pass an immigration bill as sweeping as that he championed in the Senate. (Watch him in the coming weeks; if he puts pressure on the House to move, then it will show that there is little substance to this sense.)
He championed this issue not so much because he wanted to see the Schumer bill pass, but to break ranks, on a major issue, with the conservatives who have embraced him He wanted to present an image of a politician willing to work in a bipartisan manner, one who does not march in lockstep with his party.
And the man whom the Democrats and their allies in the mainstream media recently (ridiculously) derided for drinking water has now earned respect in their circles. Oh, they’ll pull out the knives again as soon as the Floridian points out flaws in Obamcare or challegnes the administration on its foreign policy (or lack thereof).
But, for now these purveyors of public opinion see him as a principled reformer willing to buck his party.
And Marco, bear in mind, what happened to the media’s favorite Republican when he secured his party’s presidential nomination back in 2008.
Maybe I’m saying all this because I have long respected the junior Senator from the Sunshine State — and believe we need more Republicans like him, individuals able to make the case for conservative policies who, like Ronald Reagan, appeals to those not used to hearing that rationale.
Please, do note that I include this post in the “Random Thoughts” category.
SOMEWHAT RELATED: Why I still love Marco Rubio
I still am disquieted by his past vagueness on G/L rights in-general…and his sly pivot to the homophobic Right as elections draw-near.
Even his stance on SSM is way-too-cutely parsed to read as anything other than political opportunist…not statesman.
I think you´re right Dan. Senator Rubio is looking to become the front runner for the Republican nomination for Presidnet in 2016. Your observation about how the media treated John McCain once he won the nomiation is right on, and a warning that Rubio is playing a risky game.
As for the immigration bill, I repeat, it is a no winner for the Republican Party. Senators Graham, McCain, and others who keep telling the Party faithful that once they immigrants see our family is like theirs they flock to the Party. They are fooling themselves. The majority of the illegals are Mexicans. They have been politically nurtured by the socialist PRI (Partido Revolucionario Institucional) with its universal health care, tortilla subsidy, among other things. Family values is not high on their list of priorities. It is what government can do for me. Hence the Democrats will be the recipient of the majority of new registrations and votes, condemning the Republican Party to a permanent minority. Those senator need to review history. In 1986 a Republican Senate and President Reagan signed an amnesty bill. I thought they would be appreciative and register Republican. What ever new party members the got from the 1986 amnesty was negligible at best. Central Americans have been divided depending on if they were anti communist or pro communist during the civil wars that plagued their countries. Anti communists have tended to the Republican Party. Salvadorians who are now in the U.S Congress (VA & MD) are Democrats and recently embraced the communist FMLN candidate for President of El Salvador, and current VP, Salvador Sanchez Ceren.
All I can see in the future is Rubio being primaried out and the new junior GOP Senator from Florida will be Allen West.
Bank on it.
Regards,
Peter H.
Color me cranky, but when Rubio came out of the gate he went hispanic over making a cause of critical, common sense conservative issues such at Obamacare, deficit spending, the economy, jobs, the IRS and Benghazi scandals and much more.
On a list of the top ten major issues confronting America, where does pulling illegal immigrants out of the shadows place? Or, put it this way: On what list does pulling illegal immigrants out of the shadows come in ahead of securing the border to curtail the drugs, the smuggling in of enemies to our system of government and bazillions more illegal immigrants?
And, how many people think that Allen West would talk all the right conservative sweet talk and then cut loose on some black agenda?
The mess that has been made of immigration by looking the other way needs to be addressed and cleaned up. But when a gang of Senators concoct the scheme in fashion that Obamacare was foisted on us, they might suspect that the general nadir in the trust of government makes this the worst of all times t to play cute and tell us to place our “trust” in them. Right now, Rubio should go to the end of the line and work his way foreword one positive step at a time.
In 2016, we will darn sure remember Rubio. He is the guy who teamed up with Lindsey Grahamnesty and John McCainiac and thought he could con Chuck Schumer out of screwing the pooch. How do you acquire more distinctive credentials than that?
Right now, that big Haitian star witness for the prosecution in the Trayvon Martin case has more credibility than Marco Rubio has.
Rubio is off my list… I will not vote for him in 2016.
He said the other day that he’d withdraw support for this bill if it regularized the immigration status of gay partners… so there is a class of immigrant too useless for even Rubio. DUIs? Gang offenses? Illiterate? Destined for welfare? No problem. Gay? No way.
More importantly, the demographic disaster immigration reform presents is a disaster from which there is no recovery. Mass immigration has already wrecked wide swaths of this country as well as most of Europe. It’s killed the UK (Enoch Powell was right).
The interests of the GOP and some politician’s future is small potatoes compared to the interests of this country, it’s people, and its posterity.
As transformative as Obamacare is (and not in a good way), Rubio’s folly is a far greater threat.
I expected this drivel and stupidity from McCain and Graham (and Schumer, et al) but I was hoping Rubio might be different. He’s not. I do not believe he was “too dumb” and got hoodwinked by the Dems.
Hoping the House shoots it down is pusillanimous weaseling… reminds me of W’s craven approval of some campaign reform bill he thought was unconstitutional – figuring SCOTUS would do the dirty work (it didn’t).
I though these people took an oath to defend the Constitution.
I keep hearing that I should support Rubio because he is “rock solid on everything else” But where is the Rubio Deficit Reduction bill? Where is the Rubio Tax Reform bill? Where is the Rubio Regulator Reform bill?
Rubio showed his true colors with the Hoeven-Corker Amnesty Porkulus; I just don’t trust him anymore. He’s not leading on anything Conservative, but latched onto the RINO’s McCain & Graham ASAP as he got into the Senate. Rubio will forever be tied to Amnesty & people won’t forget so soon.
Rubio is dead to me. The Republican Party is dead to me. America is dead to me.
But having said that, I will give Rubio partial, grudging credit for not resorting to the race-baiting and name-calling some other Amnesty supporters (John McCain, Pandsey Graham, Grover Norquist, Michigan-Matt) were prone to. He never called anyone who favored more border security, or enforcement first a bigot, a “nativist,” or some other slur.
I think you have to give him credit for that.
And while they go about what matters in the bubble that is warshinton out in the world it’s all about life and death for keeps.
http://www.liveleak.com/ll_embed?f=a80f980747d0
Goodbye, Rubio. Tuesday,
or as soon as possible.