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A conversation I keep having with people

Posted by Jeff (ILoveCapitalism) at 3:58 pm - March 29, 2014.
Filed under: Debt Crisis,Depression 2.0,Economy

Other: How ’bout that economy?
Jeff: The U.S. dollar’s days are numbered. I don’t know when, but sometime in the next five years (and maybe even beginning as soon as this year), the dollar will be kicked out as the key world currency.
Other: That’s crazy. We’re Number One. Other countries need us to trade with.
Jeff: Not necessarily. In fact, it would be good for other countries to keep more goods for their own people, rather than sending them to us just for our crappy paper dollars.
Other: But dollars are how you, like, buy stuff. Countries will always need dollars.
Jeff: Why? They can set up payment and trade systems in their own currencies, without us. And stupid Obama is helping to push Russia, China and India together as we speak. That’s half the world.
Other: But Germany and Japan will stick with the U.S.
Jeff: Really? Why? Japan is a sinking ship. Germany isn’t, but Germany traditionally does business with Russia and China. They could wake up and re-align at any time.
Other: That’s crazy. Germany has been pro-U.S. for 70 years. They’ll never change.
Jeff: Hmm, why are you so sure?
Other: How ’bout them Niners? It’s been raining cats and dogs.

Now consider this news item: Bundesbank, PBOC in Pact to Turn Frankfurt Into Renminbi Hub.

Germany’s Bundesbank and the People’€™s Bank of China agreed to cooperate in the clearing and settling of payments in [China’s] renminbi…

The central banks signed a memorandum of understanding in Berlin today…

“Frankfurt is one of Europe’s foremost financial centers and home to two central banks, making it a particularly suitable location,” said Joachim Nagel, a member of the Bundesbank’s executive board. “Renminbi clearing will strengthen the close economic and financial ties between Germany and the People’s Republic of China.”…

In a sign of closer economic ties between the two countries, China plans to open a fourth consulate in Germany…About 800 Chinese companies have bases in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s industrial heartland…

German companies including Siemens AG, the country’s biggest engineering company, and Volkswagen AG are embracing the renminbi internally as a third currency for cross-border trade settlements…

This isn’t new; it’s a trend. China has been inking pacts with country after country in the last five years, so they can stop needing the U.S. dollar. That’s how and why the dollar is getting set for a fall.

I don’t think this trend has been reported much, in U.S. media. I try to spread the word, as I can. The U.S. has worsened its own problems in the last six years, and is moving toward some tough times. Get ready. Have your life in order: health & relationships fixed, debts paid, career solid. Also, don’t hide under a rock, but just in case things get really bad, consider maybe having some emergency supplies, gold and/or guns.

Don’t say you weren’t warned. Russia, China and India have problems too, but some (not all) of those problems stem from U.S. dominance and will be solved as they slowly re-organize the world in their favor.

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65 Comments

  1. Get ready. Have your life in order: health & relationships fixed, debts paid, career solid. Also, don’t hide under a rock, but just in case things get really bad, consider maybe having some emergency supplies, gold and/or guns. Don’t say you weren’t warned.

    What if in five years, we say we were warned after the apocalypse doesn’t happen? Will you buy back my unused emergency supplies?

    P.S. I only accept gold as payment. Not really interested in having to get into the gun trade.

    Comment by On the Fence — March 29, 2014 @ 4:56 pm - March 29, 2014

  2. The point is not about timetables; it’s about trends. (Trends that your Obama has spent 5 years not solving, and indeed making worse.) It’s also about you taking responsibility for yourself.

    As usual, OTF, you choose to miss the point. Good luck to you, you’ll need it.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 29, 2014 @ 4:59 pm - March 29, 2014

  3. We’re whistling past the graveyard… the graveyard of has-been world powers.

    Most people have no idea of the consequences of losing status as the world’s reserve currency. Once international trade can be settled without dollars – the demand for dollars will drop like a stone.

    Comment by KCRob (SoCalRobert) — March 29, 2014 @ 5:00 pm - March 29, 2014

  4. It’s another example of two contradictory ideas progressives believe in simultaneously.

    1. There’s no such thing as American Exceptionalism; it’s just a myth rednecks believe in out of blind, stupid patriotism.

    2. America can continue fiscally unsustainable policies because of our exceptional position in the Global Economy; which will never change because we’re exceptional.

    Comment by V the K — March 29, 2014 @ 6:18 pm - March 29, 2014

  5. V – Strangely, yes. A leftie is most likely to tell me something like “Come on. Where will other countries go, to sell their products? They need our ‘demand’, our markets.”

    It shows their lack of understanding of trade & markets. Like their faith in Global Warming, lefties’ faith that America must always be the #1 rich country is essentially mystical and ignorant.

    But even intelligent, libert-rightish will tell me things somewhat like what I said in my post. In other words, there is a lot of ‘denial’ out there (regardless of politics).

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 29, 2014 @ 6:45 pm - March 29, 2014

  6. I find it interesting that my former Congressman… whose bailiwick in office was the vulnerability of the American power grid… has chosen to live off the grid in a self-sufficient cabin in a remote part of West Virginia. I heard Dick Cheney in a radio interview also comment on the vulnerability of our electrical infrastructure. It makes me wonder if they know *something.*

    Comment by V the K — March 29, 2014 @ 6:54 pm - March 29, 2014

  7. ILC,

    Your point gets diluted by your doomsday reverse- euphemism.

    “maybe having some emergency supplies, gold and/or guns.”

    Give me a break.

    I made no argument that the American dollar is losing its value. It’s your suggestion that we’re entering some precursor to the apocalypse. You can’t hide behind your “maybe.”

    Comment by On the Fence — March 29, 2014 @ 7:57 pm - March 29, 2014

  8. #6 – “It makes me wonder if they know *something.*”

    Yes, they know what the rest of us know but have been ignoring in hopes of avoiding lapsing into a constant state of depression. The Fed has, metaphorically, pumped us full of silicone.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CH0eSyII8aw

    Comment by Richard Bell — March 29, 2014 @ 8:00 pm - March 29, 2014

  9. There are actually a number of ways the fiscal collapse of the United States could be averted: Entitlement reform to bring our welfare systems in line with our actual capacity to support them; spending reducations to reduce profligate spending; tax and regulatory reform to make our economic system more efficient and pro-growth.

    However, since anyone who advocates even mild versions of the preceding is called a radical extremist and a ‘Whackobird,’ this makes those reforms politically impossible. Thus, the only other option is fiscal and economic collapse.

    It only makes sense to make reasonable efforts to prepare for an event that becomes increasingly likely as necessary reforms are left unmade.

    Comment by V the K — March 29, 2014 @ 8:32 pm - March 29, 2014

  10. What if in five years, we say we were warned after the apocalypse doesn’t happen? Will you (ILC) buy back my unused emergency supplies?

    Why should he? If you were stupid enough to stockpile crap on the word of another, why should the “Chicken Little” be called to bail you out?

    You sound like a nitwit trolling to be a victim and demanding a payout for following the wrong parade of lemmings.

    On the other hand, if you find yourself up to your a$$ in survivalist supplies and you know for sure that the storm has passed, why not just eat them?

    There is nothing more underwhelming than a pretend smart guy holding five aces all of the same suit. Perchance you should take your half-baked wit and wisdom down the hill to where the drug addicted and lobotomized laugh with fascination as their toenails grow.

    Or, as another option, buy up piles of devalued currency until your silo is breached and then try to trade it all for some moldy donkey vomit.

    Comment by heliotrope — March 29, 2014 @ 10:04 pm - March 29, 2014

  11. Helio, I’m sorry to hear you had a bad day. I hope things get better for you.

    Comment by On the Fence — March 29, 2014 @ 11:52 pm - March 29, 2014

  12. A democratic society can’t possibly collapse or become tyrannical. It’s unthinkable, regardless of whether or not the currency becomes significantly devalued or the country amasses an unsustainable level of debt. Anyone who thinks otherwise or thinks it might be prudent to have an emergency plan just in case is a paranoid conspiracy theorist. Everything is always going to be fine, because the government will always be there to look after everyone.

    Comment by Rattlesnake — March 30, 2014 @ 2:18 am - March 30, 2014

  13. LOL 🙂 heliotrope, that’s what I call pwnage!

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 30, 2014 @ 2:34 am - March 30, 2014

  14. […] at Gay Patriot has up this blog post called “A conversation I keep having with […]

    Pingback by We Remember Former POW Jeremiah Denton, Jr. and Weekend Links — March 30, 2014 @ 10:01 am - March 30, 2014

  15. SNL Cold Open. President Obama trying to sell Obamacare….

    http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2014/03/healthcaregov-meeting-cold-open.html

    Comment by Steve — March 30, 2014 @ 10:04 am - March 30, 2014

  16. Remember Y2K? I remain unconvinced that a competing currency is bad for the US economy, particularly in the context of domestic fiscal policy. Our currency is kept artificially low (bankers and manufacturers/services who depend upon foreign markets see to that) and I believe we’ve reached the point that fiscally responsible behavior (congressional spending, Fed “dollars”, etc.) can only occur out of necessity, not political epiphany. There are simply too many Americans who depend upon a debt economy. The Euro hasn’t exactly worked as planned and this was among nations with some degree of shared self-interest, geography, and culture. The situation being discussed here is very different.

    One of the least attractive aspects of some of the right/conservative sites I visit is the amount of doomsday/survivalist chatter I read. There is reason for concern, of course; these sites are self-selecting and I wouldn’t be here if I didn’t think we should change course. But I would caution against transferring too much of our displeasure with government personnel and policy to the mentality of the End Times.

    Comment by Ignatius — March 30, 2014 @ 10:45 am - March 30, 2014

  17. I remain unconvinced that a competing currency is bad for the US economy

    Same here. I’m not talking about “end times”, I’m talking about cause-and-effect. The world is changing: partly because it’s ready to anyway, and partly because of U.S. failure to solve its problems (and failure to stay true to its heritage of freedom). We’ll be making some adjustments, painful at first – though not necessarily bad in the long run. That’s logic, not eschatology.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 30, 2014 @ 10:55 am - March 30, 2014

  18. ILC, thanks for the link. It is a much needed word.

    Honestly, why should anyone who expresses an opinion, considered or not, be held liable in advance for any tort over which some fool decides to take you to account?

    A guy once told me trust a carpenter for a job. I had to can the carpenter post haste. I guess I should have let the carpenter screw up my life and gone to the acquaintance and beat on him over my self-inflicted misery.

    One of the reasons you keep guns and plenty of ammo in your bunker is so that you can drive away when chuckle-heads who didn’t prepare and decide to amble by and get grumpy because you refuse to share.

    Obviously, you will be the nasty, self-centered, mean guy. But who died and made you the great welfare god of mercy for the grasshopper class?

    Comment by heliotrope — March 30, 2014 @ 11:02 am - March 30, 2014

  19. Yes, this is an Ant and the Grasshopper story. If Aesop lived had lived in our times, the grasshopper would no doubt have asked the ants “What if winter doesn’t come?” and called them a bunch of doomsday theorists.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 30, 2014 @ 11:15 am - March 30, 2014

  20. Helio, If you think I seriously “expected” ILC to buy back my emergency supplies, than maybe next time I make a joke, I’ll include a full explanation. Seems ridiculous to have to do so, though.

    But, then, perhaps ILC was making a joke about buying up guns and emergency supplies and wasn’t serious. And, if that was the case, then I was mistaken.

    But, it’s either a joke, or it is indeed earnest allusions to “end times” discussion.

    Comment by On the Fence — March 30, 2014 @ 11:25 am - March 30, 2014

  21. Let’s ask the most recent nitwit troll (and all the other trolls) this question:

    What if in five years, we say we were warned after the (‘global warming’/’climate change’) apocalypse doesn’t happen? Will you (and members of your leftist/fascist tribe) buy back my unused emergency supplies issue apologies and monetary compensation for all of the deceit and chicanery committed by ‘scientists’ who tried to ‘prove’ the theory and the attempt to dramatically reconfigure (read: destroy) world economies in the cause of 1) amassing large fortunes for the members of a small cadre of leaders in your CAGW ‘church’, and 2) averting a cascade of predicted catastrophes (that were never going to occur in the first place)?

    Comment by Jman1961 — March 30, 2014 @ 11:31 am - March 30, 2014

  22. What I wrote:

    There is reason for concern, of course; these sites are self-selecting and I wouldn’t be here if I didn’t think we should change course.

    Now I’m a ‘grasshopper’ for urging caution when discussing the potential of our nation’s complete financial collapse, thus warranting hoarding gold and guns. Whatever. Enjoy your freeze-dried escarole.

    Comment by Ignatius — March 30, 2014 @ 11:38 am - March 30, 2014

  23. For the record, I was thinking of OTF. Perhaps you missed comment #17, wherein I stated my areas of agreement with you.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 30, 2014 @ 11:41 am - March 30, 2014

  24. Comment #19:

    Yes, this is an Ant and the Grasshopper story. If Aesop lived had lived in our times, the grasshopper would no doubt have asked the ants “What if winter doesn’t come?” and called them a bunch of doomsday theorists.

    Offering a word of warning re. potential economic hardship is warranted. Exhorting others to behave like survivalists because a complete collapse might happen is not the same thing. Likely != Certain. Aesop would be nothing without hyperbole; choosing a fable illustrating the foolishness of someone who doubts the change of seasons (similar to doubting the rising of the sun/spinning of Earth) is hardly analogous/appropriate, certainly not with anyone here. The collapse of the US economy is not imminent — not even close.

    Calling you a doomsday theorist (I used the term ‘doomsday/survivalist chatter’ but didn’t call you a ‘doomsday theorist’) based upon your blog entry is far closer to the mark than dismissing me as a grasshopper after my having expressed cautionary concern re. both the economy and predicting catastrophe.

    Comment by Ignatius — March 30, 2014 @ 12:17 pm - March 30, 2014

  25. And comment #20 [update – sorry, meant #23]:

    For the record, I was thinking of OTF.

    Seriously, Iggy – people (or I) can express agreement with you, as I agreed with you at #17, and yet you still have a tale where you were targeted for disapproval. I’ll be honest: I don’t get it.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 30, 2014 @ 12:24 pm - March 30, 2014

  26. (continued) Perhaps I didn’t agree with you ecstatically enough?

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 30, 2014 @ 12:27 pm - March 30, 2014

  27. Or perhaps you wish that we wouldn’t agree on anything? (I don’t know.)

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 30, 2014 @ 12:34 pm - March 30, 2014

  28. The collapse of the US economy is not imminent — not even close.

    This depends on how one defines the word “collapse”.

    And what facts are relied upon to come to this conclusion?
    Is it a “fact” that present economic realities can go on indefinitely?

    Comment by Jman1961 — March 30, 2014 @ 12:55 pm - March 30, 2014

  29. Jman: As you know (but I’ll try to say it in my words), the present economy can’t go on indefinitely. The recessions of 2000 and 2008 were short-circuited by “stimulus” policies. Recessions are supposed to perform a healing function, of clearing the economy’s deadwood (malinvestments), and of moving assets and labor cheaply from the hands of poor businesspeople to the hands of competent, prudent businesspeople. For at least 15 years, we have refused to let those processes complete naturally. We have tried to build a world where no one fails (since it might harm their “self-esteem”); a world where stupidity is bailed out by Obamacare, spending, TARP, QE and ZIRP. Correspondingly, the inefficiency/incompetence in our economy continues to gather (and the bad debts). The recession which finally fixes all that will be a doozy. Now, is that a “collapse”? As you say, it depends on how one defines the word. Well then, is it the end times, or the end of the world? Certainly not. Will it be very painful, for a lot of people? Likely yes. The dollar’s collapse (as it is rejected as the world reserve currency) will play into it. That’s not eschatology, it’s logic.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 30, 2014 @ 1:10 pm - March 30, 2014

  30. Now, is that a “collapse”?

    Yes, it is.

    I was asking that question of those who, apparently, believe that all our economic ills can be solved by electing and appointing the right portfolio managers (think ‘Romney’).
    But they can’t be addressed that way, because they’re actually symptomatic of political defects, which in turn are symptomatic of cultural and societal defects.
    Putting Band Aids on gaping wounds doesn’t effect healing, and it doesn’t even mask the real problems.
    There’s a willful denial on the part of too many people of what lies just ahead of us, because the prospect of those future realities is more than some people can bring themselves to look at squarely (along with their part(s) in helping to bring them about).
    And that’s one reason (and the ancillary reasons contained therein), that we are almost certainly going to be aboard when the ship of state finally does make contact with the implacable iceberg known as “reality”.
    And no amount of denials, Band Aid applications, nor wistful sophistry is going to change that.

    How many times does the lesson have to be taught before it’s learned?
    Deal with the problems that confront you now, or ignore and dismiss them, and consign yourself to dealing with more ominous problems later on.

    Comment by Jman1961 — March 30, 2014 @ 1:46 pm - March 30, 2014

  31. Logical Fallacy Central!

    I begin by stating a word of caution. I’m then called a grasshopper because my comments have been misconstrued to imply via analogy that I don’t think there’s anything wrong with our economy, that I think we should fiddle away our time, mocking those who are more industrious, moral, and far-sighted. Do I have that right?

    Then I’m criticized because I have the temerity to “disagree” with ILC, apparently because offering another perspective is ‘disagreement’ and that my comments are off-base not because of their content but because of some personal reason (“…and yet you still have a tale where you were targeted for disapproval. I’ll be honest: I don’t get it.”; “…Perhaps I didn’t agree with you ecstatically enough?”; “Or perhaps you wish that we wouldn’t agree on anything? (I don’t know.)”) apparently in an attempt to change the subject to myself and my problem with ‘disagreement’.

    Now my comments are being misconstrued further to imply that I think economic collapse is impossible, i.e. that my word of caution requires that I prove with facts that current economics can continue indefinitely because, after all, that’s exactly what I’ve written, i.e. that I think all this talk of economic hardship is nonsense, correct? Do I have that right?

    Comment by Ignatius — March 30, 2014 @ 1:46 pm - March 30, 2014

  32. I’m then called a grasshopper

    Bzzzzzzt, wrong answer. As I’ve said twice (or now for the third time): “For the record, I was thinking of OTF.”

    Then I’m criticized because I have the temerity to “disagree” with ILC

    Up to this point – Far from criticizing you Iggy, I’ve gone out of my way in this thread to state where I would be able to agree with you.

    I guess you truly just do not want to hear it. Sad.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 30, 2014 @ 1:54 pm - March 30, 2014

  33. Now my comments are being misconstrued further to imply that I think economic collapse is impossible, i.e. that my word of caution requires that I prove with facts that current economics can continue indefinitely because, after all, that’s exactly what I’ve written…

    Comment by Ignatius — March 30, 2014 @ 1:46 pm

    Either your hysterics have negatively impacted your ability to read and comprehend plain and simple English, or you’re being grossly disingenuous (not a new stance for you), so here, again, is what you wrote:

    The collapse of the US economy is not imminent — not even close.

    NO ONE stated or implied (according to you):

    …that current economics can continue indefinitely because, after all, that’s exactly what I’ve written…

    No, what we should be ‘sounding’ here is a Strawman Alert together with an Overly Sensitive and Defensive Hysterics Alert

    Comment by Jman1961 — March 30, 2014 @ 2:06 pm - March 30, 2014

  34. Jman, as I recall, you asked Iggy a neutral or non-loaded question:

    Is it a “fact” that present economic realities can go on indefinitely?

    It would have been interesting to hear him address it directly. Oh, well.

    For myself: This isn’t the first time Iggy has not acknowledged when I’ve actually supported (or agreed with) his points at least in some part…but it is a wonderfully clear-cut example. OK, enough from me.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 30, 2014 @ 2:20 pm - March 30, 2014

  35. you asked Iggy a neutral or non-loaded question:

    and

    Is it a “fact” that present economic realities can go on indefinitely?

    From Google:

    imminent — about to happen. “…they were in imminent danger of being swept away…” synonyms: impending, close (at hand), near, (fast) approaching, coming, forthcoming, on the way, in the offing, in the pipeline, on the horizon, in the air, etc.

    I did not state that collapse of the US economy is not eventual.

    I did state that I don’t think the collapse of the US economy (a collapse of a nature that would require gold and guns, meaning a hard currency to replace worthless domestic paper and self-defense against thieves who will be after lives and goods) is imminent. From this statement, a straw man is then thrown up that assumes since I don’t believe such a collapse is near at hand, I must then believe that current economic ‘realities’ must continue indefinitely and that I must now provide facts to prove this continuity, an assertion I never made and a leap of logic that implies economic illiteracy of both the person asking and the person being asked. This is an argument set up to derail a conversation in order to make one’s opponent defend against an argument (usually ridiculous) he never made and thus claim victory.

    It’s an idiotic question.

    Comment by Ignatius — March 30, 2014 @ 3:28 pm - March 30, 2014

  36. imminent — about to happen. “…they were in imminent danger of being swept away…” synonyms: impending, close (at hand), near, (fast) approaching, coming, forthcoming, on the way, in the offing, in the pipeline, on the horizon, in the air, etc.

    Uh huh.

    That’s what some of us have been referring to (the ‘bold’ synonyms in the list you posted).
    We believe that the collapse is …coming, forthcoming, on the way, in the offing, in the pipeline, on the horizon, in the air, etc.
    And since you’ve previously stated that it is not imminent, then you must also believe that it is not coming, forthcoming, on the way, in the offing, in the pipeline, on the horizon, in the air, etc.
    Therefore, you must then believe that it is so distant a possibility that to discuss it here as being anything other than that is…irresponsible.
    Well, some of us don’t agree with that position.

    Everything OK now?

    From this statement, a straw man is then thrown up that assumes since I don’t believe such a collapse is near at hand, I must then believe that current economic ‘realities’ must continue indefinitely and that I must now provide facts to prove this continuity…

    This is twice you’ve done this.
    No one has said what you claim they have, which is why you won’t just cite the ‘offending’ comments: they don’t exist, except in your defensiveness and paranoia.
    Kindly stop LYING regarding what others have said here.
    Thanks in advance for your anticipated burst of (newly discovered) integrity.

    This is an argument set up to derail a conversation in order to make one’s opponent defend against an argument (usually ridiculous) he never made and thus claim victory.

    The only one who’s preoccupied with that kind of pissing contest is you.

    Comment by Jman1961 — March 30, 2014 @ 3:54 pm - March 30, 2014

  37. I did state that I don’t think the collapse of the US economy (a collapse of a nature that would require gold and guns, meaning a hard currency to replace worthless domestic paper and self-defense against thieves who will be after lives and goods) is imminent.

    And, by *your own, verrry carrreful* point about the true meaning of “imminent”, I don’t think that either.

    I did say “The U.S…is moving toward some tough times,” like “sometime in the next five years.” Not super imminent. And I said “don’t hide under a rock.” Again, not exactly imminent (by your stress on what the word means). I said “Get ready” (implying time to prepare). And “just in case things get really bad, consider…” again speaking to tail cases (not the average/likeliest case) or lack of urgency for this very instant.

    It’s an idiotic question.

    Like your behavior here of throwing a fit of concern for yourself (your being “criticized” or name-called or whatever), Iggy, over a comment (#19 grasshopper) that in fact was written on someone else altogether? Would it be that idiotic? 🙂

    Do note, if you haven’t already, that the doomsday-theorist slur was introduced by OnTheFence at #7. (I never suggested it was you.)

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 30, 2014 @ 4:27 pm - March 30, 2014

  38. Jeff: The U.S. dollar’s days are numbered. I don’t know when, but sometime in the next five years (and maybe even beginning as soon as this year), the dollar will be kicked out as the key world currency.

    After highlighting that the U.S. dollar will fall from being the world’s #1 currency in the next 1 – 5 years (which I am NOT disagreeing with) …

    … moving toward some tough times. Get ready. Have your life in order: health & relationships fixed, debts paid, career solid. Also, don’t hide under a rock, but just in case things get really bad, consider maybe having some emergency supplies, gold and/or guns.

    ILC then warns the readers to prepare for what may follow with some sound advice that is smart to follow regardless of what happens. At the very end of it, he adds that matters might escalate to a point where readers should “consider maybe having some emergency supplies, gold, and/or guns.”

    Now, “emergency supplies” are, again, a smart way to go in general, in the event of natural disasters, etc. However, this post was written in the context of the decline of the U.S. dollar and what may follow after the next 1 – 5 years. There’s a suggestive spirit in the nature of the use of the term, but, it’s ambiguous enough to have the degree of alarm that is being raised open to interpretation.

    “Gold,” of course, is never a bad thing to invest in.

    But, then ILC goes on to tack on “guns” at the end. More sound advice in general? Well, for the large percentage of people in this country who don’t own guns, nor care to ever own guns, the “possible” recommendation (or however you want to word it) is suggestive that this country, in the next 1 – 5 years (whenever the U.S. dollar begins to take a huge dive), could devolve into a state where there will be panic and mayhem on the streets to the point where owning arms will become a necessity for survival.

    Now, he’s not saying this *will* happen. He’s suggesting it *might*.

    Okay, well, aliens *might* also attack our planet, destroy our means of defending ourselves, take over our water supply and electricity, and enslave us all. Will it happen? I doubt it. Will the U.S. dollar fall so hard and so low that regular citizens will have to take up arms to defend themselves and their families in the next five years? I doubt it.

    But, again, perhaps it was a joke on ILC’s part. And, if it was, then I was mistaken in my interpretation, and I apologize.

    Comment by On the Fence — March 30, 2014 @ 5:05 pm - March 30, 2014

  39. suggestive that this country, in the next 1 – 5 years (whenever the U.S. dollar begins to take a huge dive), could devolve into a state where there will be panic and mayhem on the streets to the point where owning arms will become a necessity for survival.

    I find it a “tail case” well worth considering.

    I don’t predict a single scenario; I look at several possible scenarios, down to what I think is a probability of (say) 5-10%. You don’t think there is a chance of 5-10% (or more) that, in the next 1-5 years, the U.S. economic situation could decay to the point of mayhem in the streets. I do.

    Remember the mass looting in the Rodney King riots? That’s what the people of Los Angeles are capable of…even in good times. (And since looting is economic in nature, clearly the Rodney King part was just an excuse.)

    Last night at dinner, I listened while a good friend told me how his good friend (both of them recent university graduates) had a criminal stick a gun in her face just a few days ago. She doesn’t carry a gun, but she carries a knife.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 30, 2014 @ 5:12 pm - March 30, 2014

  40. Well, for the large percentage of people in this country who don’t own guns, nor care to ever own guns…

    Otherwise known as fools, who naively believe in the basic ‘goodness’ of everyone around them, and that some agent of Big Daddy government (most often the police) will be just moments away when the shit hits the fan, and all that supposed ‘goodness’ is nowhere to be found.
    It’s a good idea to be able to defend and protect yourself (and your family), as the first resort, not the last.
    One of the key definitions of being an adult.

    Okay, well, aliens *might* also attack our planet, destroy our means of defending ourselves, take over our water supply and electricity, and enslave us all. Will it happen? I doubt it.

    Will the prepubescent twerp who posted this remark ever grow up enough to participate productively in a discussion with grown ups?

    I doubt it.

    Comment by Jman1961 — March 30, 2014 @ 5:25 pm - March 30, 2014

  41. You don’t think there is a chance of 5-10% (or more) that, in the next 1-5 years, the U.S. economic situation could decay to the point of mayhem in the streets. I do.

    Wouldn’t it be worth examining your prediction through the lens of the Wall Street crash of 1929 instead of the L.A. riots (the severity of which was isolated mostly to the L.A.-metro area, though, there were much minor “copycat” versions in other U.S. cities occurring simultaneously)? That was a single-day catastrophic economic event that sent the country into the Great Depression, which lasted for years. But, what I recall from school is financial hardship for many, not exactly mass looting and a rise in crime to the point of having to take up arms as part of one’s daily rituals.

    Also, I’m sorry to hear about your friend’s friend. That’s f-cked up.

    Comment by On the Fence — March 30, 2014 @ 5:54 pm - March 30, 2014

  42. As if the possibility of an alien invasion were exactly equal to the possibility of an economic collapse. (Which, by the way, has happened many Times in human history.)

    It is preferable to have a gun and not need one, than to need one and not have one. That said, I am afraid I must dispute the veracity of ILC’s anecdote. Under California’s very strict gun control laws, it is inconceivable that a criminal could possess a firearm. I think he is pulling our leg.

    Comment by V the K — March 30, 2014 @ 6:07 pm - March 30, 2014

  43. The 1929 crash only sent the country into a recession. It was government actions after that which blocked recovery, causing the Great Depression. For example, Hoover did spending and tax increases (including the Smoot-Hawley Tariff), and jawboned businesspeople into *not* lowering wages (so they had no choice but to lower employment instead). Roosevelt did more of the same policies, and added crazy government regulations and industrial planning boards.

    As to the fact that U.S. society didn’t fall apart in the 1930s: Well, see jman #30. While society back then was far from ideal, most people had better self-control than we do now.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 30, 2014 @ 6:12 pm - March 30, 2014

  44. Brazil’s already selling bonds in euros http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304418404579464960942616056?mg=reno64-wsj

    Comment by Fausta — March 30, 2014 @ 6:55 pm - March 30, 2014

  45. Neither the Soviets in1987 nor the dinosaurs of the Late Cretaceous foresaw that their reign would abruptly end.

    Comment by V the K — March 30, 2014 @ 7:24 pm - March 30, 2014

  46. While society back then was far from ideal, most people had better self-control than we do now.

    I’ll bet they didn’t piss, moan, whine and complain anywhere near as much as so many people do these days.

    Comment by Jman1961 — March 30, 2014 @ 9:08 pm - March 30, 2014

  47. Wouldn’t it be worth examining your prediction through the lens of the Wall Street crash of 1929 instead of the L.A. riots (the severity of which was isolated mostly to the L.A.-metro area, though, there were much minor “copycat” versions in other U.S. cities occurring simultaneously)? That was a single-day catastrophic economic event that sent the country into the Great Depression, which lasted for years. But, what I recall from school is financial hardship for many, not exactly mass looting and a rise in crime to the point of having to take up arms as part of one’s daily rituals.

    Comment by On the Fence — March 30, 2014 @ 5:54 pm – March 30, 2014

    Certainly.

    In 1929, rioting and acting like animals was not encouraged by popular culture or a major political party. Decency, hard work, fair play, and respect for other peoples’ property was.

    As Chicago, Detroit, Baltimore, and the other inner cities show us, the fifty-year campaign of the Obama Party to create a feral welfare class that worships criminals and thugs like Saint Trayvon has left us with nowhere near the degree of societal restraint or control that we had in 1929, especially when the screaming child Obama and his Occupy Obama Party actually call for the murder and confiscation of property of “the rich” and the screaming child Obama rants about how “you didn’t build that” and how all wealth is stolen from others.

    Comment by North Dallas Thirty — March 30, 2014 @ 9:43 pm - March 30, 2014

  48. Ignatius @ #22:

    Now I’m a ‘grasshopper’ for urging caution when discussing the potential of our nation’s complete financial collapse, thus warranting hoarding gold and guns. Whatever. Enjoy your freeze-dried escarole.

    Whew!

    Notice that I highlighted the Ignatius supplied hyperbole that was loaded onto this conversation.

    The complete financial collapse of our economy is a fairly distant possibly for the many who have something beyond a weak weekly paycheck. But there is an ocean of people in the US who are living on unemployment and disability and who have “dropped out” of the workforce.

    When push comes to shove, entitlements in this country are going to be whacked. If the job market has not returned to offer employment, there will be a raging horde of have-nots who are going to go looking for copper pipe to sell and a wide array of stuff to steal.

    When the Hunt brothers drove silver up to $50 an ounce in 1980, a lot of homes were broken into to steal the silverware. But that was a short term blip. A depression and climbing out of it is a much more long term situation.

    The charge of hoarding gold and guns is a bit baroque. A person’s arsenal might include a pistol or two, a shotgun and a rifle. Ammo is the “hoarding” commodity. Guns are there for warding off human takers and for hunting to eat.

    The gold is a different issue entirely. It is a medium of barter. People will trade goods for goods they need, but currency is a different matter. Gold and silver have long been standards for calculating exchange values and they are still in that category.

    Gold is not an investment in terms of increasing the return on investment. However, it is a tangible, international unit of exchange. If one “hoards” gold and silver at the risk of locking up one’s liquid assets, that is hoarding. If one has a rainy day stash, that is providential planning. Most of us would rather lose 25% on our gold than be 100% without it in a time of need.

    So, lets cut the hyperbole and take this subject seriously.

    If one is just getting by, then the problem of preparing for worse times is not entirely a front burner priority. But that does not mean that one should forego the opportunity to get as prepared as possible.

    Obama keeps yammering about income inequality. That is dog-whistle politics aimed at the welfare class. Like any communist, he is stirring up the underclass to demand wealth transfer through the voting box. When the whole demagoguery blow apart, the suckers who bought into it are going to ……. riot? That is the whole “ace in the hole” racism card the DemoningRats have been playing since forever.

    Now they are working on stirring up 11 million illegal aliens. That is communist bread and butter politics.

    So, you can choose to prepare or just wait and see. It is like passing on a curve in the fog at night with no head lights. You have a 50-50 chance. Heck, the on-coming semi might even take to the ditch to avoid hitting you head on.

    Comment by heliotrope — March 30, 2014 @ 9:52 pm - March 30, 2014

  49. Well reading all this, I’m pretty sure I won’t be able to dig myself out of the hole I’m in before things go to dren, so I wish you all the best. 🙁

    Comment by The_Livewire — March 31, 2014 @ 8:34 am - March 31, 2014

  50. I did say “The U.S…is moving toward some tough times,” like “sometime in the next five years.” Not super imminent.

    The expression ‘gold and/or guns’ is yours, coupled with ’emergency supplies’, ‘Don’t say you weren’t warned’, etc. This is not the talk of someone taking a measured, reasoned view of economic and political projections. If the US economy were to face ‘tough times’ (your expression) that required ‘gold and/or guns’ (your expression) to get by, then it’s fairly clear you’re discussing a ‘collapse’ (my word), meaning a collapse of our currency to the point where gold is a viable alternative for trade and where guns are necessary for self-defense. This is a logical conclusion based upon the language you chose to use. Don’t like the use of hyperbole? Then don’t use it.

    Like your behavior here of throwing a fit of concern for yourself (your being “criticized” or name-called or whatever), Iggy, over a comment (#19 grasshopper) that in fact was written on someone else altogether?

    Actually, heliotrope introduced grasshopper @18 and neither of you made clear to whom that was directed — you just rode it until you were called on it. I assume you thought it rhetorically advantageous and On The Fence and I are making very similar points, meaning the term ‘grasshopper’ applies to both of us. After all, urging caution in predicting collapse (gold/guns, emergency supplies, dire warnings) is akin to mocking those of us who are industrious and far-sighted, right?

    It’s an idiotic question.

    Yep. Still is. It assumes a false either/or based upon a false conclusion (Since I don’t think collapse is imminent, I must think it’s impossible, right?), a kind of binary thinking that only idiots engage in: Since ‘collapse’ (requiring gold/guns, emergency supplies, Don’t say you weren’t warned…) isn’t imminent, then you must believe we can continue our current economic policies indefinitely, as in there are no other options. In fact, there are a great many options because economic conditions are constantly changing.

    Comment by Ignatius — March 31, 2014 @ 11:47 am - March 31, 2014

  51. neither of you made clear to whom that was directed

    It was clear that heliotrope was talking to me about OnTheFence – and hence, that I would be also talking about OnTheFence as I responded to heliotrope.

    You simply chose to ignore context, a.k.a. “sloppy reading”. And now you can’t admit it.

    It was all the more clear because I had just written a comment (#17) that actually supported / agreed with you in part. And even more clear, after I clarified the matter for you directly and explicitly, 3-4 times.

    Really, Iggy, stop digging your hole. It would be so much easier – for you, I mean – if you just said “OMG ILC, I goofed! So sorry I flew off the handle like that!” Because we all goof, sometimes. Even you.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 31, 2014 @ 12:02 pm - March 31, 2014

  52. You had plenty of opportunities to correct my ‘goof’, as I mentioned the word ‘grasshopper’ several times, explaining why the fable doesn’t apply to this conversation. Now you’re evading behind some supposed rhetorical technicality in order to avoid substantive conversation as well as trying to make this about me, which it isn’t. Typical of you.

    Comment by Ignatius — March 31, 2014 @ 12:13 pm - March 31, 2014

  53. You had plenty of opportunities to correct my ‘goof’

    And I did so, directly and explicitly, 3-4 times, as early as comment #23. (Which was my VERY NEXT COMMENT after #19; it’s not possible to correct it any earlier than that.) Also see #25, #32, #37.

    Really, Iggy, stop digging your hole. It would be so much easier – for you, I mean – if you just took a little responsibility and said “OMG ILC, I goofed! So sorry I flew off the handle like that!” Because we all goof, sometimes. Even you.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 31, 2014 @ 12:15 pm - March 31, 2014

  54. Yes, this is an Ant and the Grasshopper story. If Aesop lived had lived in our times, the grasshopper would no doubt have asked the ants “What if winter doesn’t come?” and called them a bunch of doomsday theorists.

    Such a stupid comment.

    Comment by Ignatius — March 31, 2014 @ 12:36 pm - March 31, 2014

  55. Really sad, Iggy. Never seen you lower.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 31, 2014 @ 12:40 pm - March 31, 2014

  56. No mirrors in your house, ILC?

    Comment by Ignatius — March 31, 2014 @ 12:45 pm - March 31, 2014

  57. No mirrors in your house, ILC?

    Comment by Ignatius — March 31, 2014 @ 12:45 pm

    Why don’t you just ucfk off for a little while.

    This episode is a carbon copy of an incident which YOU ginned up several months ago when you and another idiot leftist troll commenter, a Ms. Cinesnatch, tag-teamed to derail another thread of ILC’s over linking to some website post that had a word in it that you didn’t like.
    You’re not burnishing your alleged ‘conservative’ credentials by taking up with another puerile leftist idiot troll, Homo Fence, in this one.
    If your self esteem is taking such a beating over this “grasshopper” thing, then go rent some couch time with a competent psychologist.

    You cry and moan about being ‘picked on’ more than a whiny 3 year old girl.

    You’re a piss poor excuse for a man, that’s for sure.

    Comment by Jman1961 — March 31, 2014 @ 12:58 pm - March 31, 2014

  58. I still feel pity for Iggy’s crash-and-burn, but at least some valid points were made in this thread. And now it needs a rest. Jman gets the last word. That’s “how it is.”

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — March 31, 2014 @ 1:32 pm - March 31, 2014

  59. New day. Re-opened for comments of a constructive spirit.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — April 1, 2014 @ 9:38 am - April 1, 2014

  60. An open challenge. If you do not think our economy is in trouble from all the government interference, then please explain the rise of the “gray” market all over the country.

    Comment by Juan — April 1, 2014 @ 11:20 am - April 1, 2014

  61. […] Lest the excitable accuse me of being a doomsday theorist (gasp!), I shall duly warn that in no way am I predicting instant hyperinflation as of tomorrow […]

    Pingback by GayPatriot » This is who leads us — April 1, 2014 @ 11:35 am - April 1, 2014

  62. Juan, great point and I think there will be more of that, in years to come.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — April 1, 2014 @ 6:26 pm - April 1, 2014

  63. So if somebody could enlighten me: from what I can gather, the “gray market” is the trade of goods through means that are technically legal, but through means that the original manufacturer does not approve of. So, say you want to buy a foreign good that the manufacturer has given a specific company the right to sell. If you buy it from a smaller import country, it is technically legal, but the manufacturer gets their nose bent out of shape. Thus, not illegal, or “black market,” but not completely legit, either. Hence, “gray market.”

    Comment by Sean L — April 1, 2014 @ 7:32 pm - April 1, 2014

  64. Sean – You and I must have just both read Wiki 🙂 because it says that. But it adds:

    The term gray economy, however, refers to workers being paid under the table, without paying income taxes or contributing to such public services.[2] It is sometimes referred to as the underground economy or “hidden economy.”

    For me, the big point either way (or regardless of which definition is meant exactly) is people doing business in a way that will seriously minimize (or eliminate) taxes.

    I can’t say I blame people. Government would blame people. Government agents usually describe gray/black activity as a ‘scourge’. I disagree. I would describe Big Government as a ‘scourge’. Gray/black market activity happens in the context of an oppressive government, one that taxes excessively, that is, on that taxes to the point of making it impossible for people to live in full compliance.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — April 2, 2014 @ 12:30 am - April 2, 2014

  65. […] Like aging, the overthrow of the U.S. dollar (as the key world currency) is a gradual process. In the last month, I’ve blogged on Russia as a U.S. financial opponent, growing ties among the BRICS nations, and growing Germany-China ties. […]

    Pingback by GayPatriot » The dollar’s removal proceeds apace — April 2, 2014 @ 3:39 pm - April 2, 2014

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