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Four Reasons Republicans Will Not Win the Senate in 2014

Posted by V the K at 6:17 pm - May 27, 2014.
Filed under: 2014 Elections

Republican fat-cats are feeling pretty good about themselves these days. They think their two greatests enemies — The Tea Party and Obama (in that order) — are on the ropes and that come January, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will preside over the Senate where Lindsey Graham and John McCain will be hard at work reaching across the aisle and making deals to pass the GOP Establishment’s top priority: Amnesty to swell the ranks of Democrat voters and replace Americans with cheap imported foreign labor.

I just don’t see it coming to pass; and my doubts may be a function of my complete and total disillusionment with the GOP, but there is also logic and reason to back up my feeling that crazy old Harry Reid will still be ranting about the Koch Brothers as majority leader come 2015. Here’s why:

1. Polls still favor Democrats in individual races – The GOP needs to pick up six seats in order to flip the Senate. The most vulnerable are said to be in red states won by Mitt Romney where vulnerable Democrats are up for re-election or open seats. These states include Alaska, Arkansas, North Carolina, West Virginia, Louisiana, and Montana. According to recent polls, the Republican candidates lead in only two of these states (West Virginia and Montana) and only narrowly. In fact, Democrat candidates are ahead in Georgia and Kentucky; two seats currently held by Republicans. While it’s too early for polls to be definitive, the idea that Republicans are on easy street isn’t supported by current data.

2. Attacks by the Establishment alienate base voters – The Establishment Republicans (who might as well be known as ‘The Junior Democrats’) have been positively gleeful over the defeat of reform candidates like Matt Bevin in Kentucky and Karen Handel in Georgia. The Junior Democrats’ attacks against Chris McDaniel in Mississippi have been especially vile. As a result of the constant attacks on the conservative base by the establishment, GOP voter enthusiasm is down dramatically compared to 2010.  Adding to the sense of apathy… item number 3.

3. “Obamacare sucks” is not a compelling platform; especially when they don’t plan to repeal it – The entire Republican campaign strategy is expressed in two words: “Obamacare sucks.” One might infer that the GOP Establishment intends to appeal that terrible law that is causing so much suffering. But, in reality, the GOP Leadership has no intention of repealing Obamacare. The GOP has no agenda for repealing Obamacare, for undoing Obama’s EPA regulations, for restoring fiscal solvency, or for creating jobs. There is no GOP agenda for anyone to vote for, unless you’re a fan of Amnesty — the only thing the GOP leadership really cares about.

4. The Democrats have perfected their scorched Earth and Get-Out-the-Low-Information-Voters techniques – The Republicans are still playing old politics; run some ads, make some speeches, robocall likely voters 4,000 times on their land lines. Meanwhile, Democrats are firing up their base with outrageously vicious attack ads, getting to their dim-witted, Government-dependent voters through entertainment and social media and making sure the Democrat fraud machine can still turn out 120% of the vote in Democrat-controlled precincts.

At the end of the day, if this election boils down to Senior Democrats versus Junior Democrats, you have to bet on the Senior Democrats; they may be vile, corrupt, and horrible but they know how to “win” elections.

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14 Comments

  1. V the K, let’s us both pray that this does not come to pass.

    Comment by Charles — May 27, 2014 @ 7:43 pm - May 27, 2014

  2. […] Written by GayPatriot […]

    Pingback by Four Reasons Republicans Will Not Win the Senate in 2014 - Citizens News — May 27, 2014 @ 9:49 pm - May 27, 2014

  3. I fear he is right. There was only one way that the Republicans could take over the Senate, and this is if they embraced their base.

    On the contrary, they have shunned, spat upon, and vilified them.

    They will not show up at the polls to support them.

    Comment by Craig Smith — May 27, 2014 @ 10:14 pm - May 27, 2014

  4. This makes me sick and sad. What a note to go to bed on!

    Comment by Seane-Anna — May 27, 2014 @ 10:21 pm - May 27, 2014

  5. UKIP just won 27% of the UK vote on their no more illegal aliens leeching off benefits message.

    Comment by Steve — May 27, 2014 @ 10:23 pm - May 27, 2014

  6. I think the republicans will blow the whole ball of wax again.

    That’s why I have accepted the nomination of my local libertarian party to run in the 11th congressional district against my indicted republican congressman, Michael Grimm, and his democrat challenger, Dominic Recchia. Mr. Recchia is rumored to be facing an indictment of his own in August.

    The deeper I get into the politics of NYS the more disgusting it all becomes. The corruption is beyond the wildest imagination.

    Comment by Richard Bell — May 27, 2014 @ 10:29 pm - May 27, 2014

  7. Wow, is this post ever depressing. You do make many good points, though, that’s for sure. I think that point #2 may be one of the most critical. I’m hearing a lot of those establishment attacks on the Tea Party and the conservative (and libertarian) base. I don’t know any serious conservatives or libertarians who have any respect for the Republican Party’s leadership at this point. Even the Republican Senate candidates can’t turn things around in the states that Romney won in 2012, then they really could be toast.

    Comment by Kurt — May 27, 2014 @ 11:33 pm - May 27, 2014

  8. It annoys the heck out of me that Democrats think they are in touch with the American people, and they are wrong.

    The Republicans know the Democrats are not in touch with the American people, and they think they are and they are ALSO wrong.

    The mere fact that the Tea Party exists and is growing is proof of this, and yet both Democrats and Republicans vilify it, calling them racist without proof (a single guy with a confederate flag is not proof).

    Neither party seems to want to reign in taxes and spending, which is really all the Tea Party really stands for.

    And because neither party will embrace the Tea Party, the Tea Party will likely stay home on election day, realizing that it makes no difference who wins.

    Comment by Craig Smith — May 28, 2014 @ 7:34 am - May 28, 2014

  9. If the Republicans blow it again this time around, we need to leave. They have been given chance after chance after chance to prove that they are true conservatives committed to the principle of limited government and the rights laid out in the Constitution. While some idealistic Republicans have tried to change things, the Republican leadership is composed of self-interested career politicians, corporate toadies, or Democrat collaborators. The leadership routinely spits on and derides their base with impunity because they have hammered the poisonous mantra, “Better a Republican than a Democrat,” into the base’s skulls. The base continues to vote for the leadership because they have been cowed or coerced into obedience.

    I know that popular wisdom says that a third party can’t work, but look at Britain. UKIP is poised to turn Britain’s three-party system into a four-party system, and they have garnered much support because they pay attention to what the people really want, rather than pander to a condescending strawman that they have constructed of the British people, and they are sticking by their principles.

    The time is ripe for a populist party to rise up in America and break the monotony of the two-party system, which has essentially turned both parties into wings of one big party: the Washington Party, a collection of wanna-be dictators and corporate patsies who are only interested in furthering the interests of themselves and their donors.

    Comment by Sean L — May 28, 2014 @ 7:37 am - May 28, 2014

  10. I would be depressingly shocked if the DemonizingRats can come out of the tall grass and pull off a major “get-out-the-low-information-voter” coup in an off year, state by state election.

    The voters are sick to death of Congress in general. The Rah-Rah DemonizingRats are would vote for Al Capone, but the run-of-the-mill independent and oh!-what-election? voters will go to the mall and never let voting cross their minds or clutter up their day.

    I don’t see the Renumblicans cruising to a victory in the Senate due to well laid Rovian strategy. That Glandular Old Party has Democrat Lite in the northeast, social conservate in much of the south and middle and libertarian scattered about here and there.

    Stupidly, the Renumblicans will almost always allow the DemonizingRats to focus on some tangential social issue to frame the debate and keep the heat off the debate of what is destroying the country.

    The fact is, the Reumblicans are Charlie Brown and the DemonizingRats are Lucy holding the football. Everyone knows the set-up, but there is always the hope that the game will change.

    Obambi has a lot of dirty laundry hanging out and more to come. He and Joe-Joe Biteme may be able to squeeze money out of the fat-cats, but they are not big crowd pleasers beyond the middle school gym assembly.

    It will be up to individuals state-by-state to pull this off a Senate turn-over.

    Comment by heliotrope — May 28, 2014 @ 9:17 am - May 28, 2014

  11. It is still early in the season. Polls and pundits have been wrong before. They may or may nor give us an accurate picture of the situation. We have to ask ourselves who have they been talking to? Do we know that they have been talking to real conservatives? There are people who would exploit the apparent division in the party to demoralize us. We shouldn’t be wringing our hands or be thinking about sitting on them on election day. I agree with Sean Hannity, Republicans in Washington, need to draw up a five point party platform. The TEA Party and the Establishment, both have visions for the future; taking control of the Senate is in 2014 and taking the White House in 2016. There needs to be a truce, and postpone the internecine battles until the Republican Party is in control. George Will opines that intraparty battles are healthy, and that after the loss by Barry Goldwater, we’ve had eight Republican Presidents. He seems to overlook that they were not consecutive, nor did they have the luxury of a Republican legislature, except, the first term and the beginning of the second, did President Reagan have a Republican Senate. Only George W. Bush have the luxury of both the Senate and House had Republican majorities until 2006, when he lost them. Another thing George Will has forgotten, LBJ did not win the election on his platform. The votes he received were sympathy votes for JFK. Senator Goldwater was running against a ghost. The Democrats could have put up an orangutan as their candidaate and it would have received the sympathy votes.

    I voted for John McCain and Mitt Romney. Neither were my original choice. Yet there was something that gave me some hope, McCain, who spent more time talking about scars from VietNam, promised to nominate strict constructist judges to SCOTUS. Romney, his success with the winter olypics, saving it from bankruptcy, and his overall business experience was far superior to that of a community organizer. As the late Al Vaber, a founding member of Log Cabin L.A. (when it was the only one) said to me Ï would rather vote for a Republican who votes with us 40% of the time than a Democrat who votes with us ZERO percent of the time. When there is a majority in the senate, an “R” after his/her name means that a Republican president can nominate conservative judges to SCOTUS, with confidence of confirmation.

    Comment by Roberto — May 28, 2014 @ 11:45 am - May 28, 2014

  12. This is sad. It’s why there’s no President Romney right now. Not a Romney fan but it would be a bit easier to stomach rather than what we have now.

    I am so mad at the Conservatives that stayed home. I respect their position but sometimes you have to give a little knowing what the end result would be if you did nothing…..

    Comment by Roger — May 28, 2014 @ 1:08 pm - May 28, 2014

  13. hese states include Alaska, Arkansas, North Carolina, West Virginia, Louisiana, and Montana. According to recent polls, the Republican candidates lead in only two of these states (West Virginia and Montana)

    What about South Dakota? And I don’t think Montana, West Virginia, and South Dakota have incumbents.

    The idea that the United States must work within the two-party system is frankly quite stupid. No, a new party isn’t going to become successful overnight, but in Canada, a non-establishment conservative party actually managed to become the main centre-right party in the country, and now they have one of their own as Prime Minister (i.e. Stephen Harper). The Reform Party (and later, Canadian Alliance) was very popular in the West, which was disenfranchised by the Eastern-based, more left-leaning parties (including the Progressive Conservatives). Until support for the Progressive Conservatives collapsed, and the two “centre-right” parties decided to merge. Since then, the West/conservatives have had a lot more power in Ottawa. It’s still not nearly as conservative as I (and other people, especially in Alberta) would like, but Canada doesn’t have the same foundational principles the US has. And I guess power corrupts people whatever they claim to believe in.

    On the other hand, establishment Republicans will eventually die off. But by then, what are now “tea party candidates” will be in the establishment, having already been corrupted by power and turned into statists.

    Comment by Rattlesnake — May 28, 2014 @ 2:38 pm - May 28, 2014

  14. #12 Roger…One could argue that we are better off today with an Obama presidency simply because a Romney one would have been an embarrassment from the get-go. As George Will said not too long ago, (paraphrasing)…the best thing that can happen to conservatism is a good dose of liberalism for a few years. A Romney win would have felt sweet in the moment, but in hindsight, the Obama win has been a much needed wake-up call.

    Comment by Eddie — May 29, 2014 @ 2:49 am - May 29, 2014

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