Republican fat-cats are feeling pretty good about themselves these days. They think their two greatests enemies — The Tea Party and Obama (in that order) — are on the ropes and that come January, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will preside over the Senate where Lindsey Graham and John McCain will be hard at work reaching across the aisle and making deals to pass the GOP Establishment’s top priority: Amnesty to swell the ranks of Democrat voters and replace Americans with cheap imported foreign labor.
I just don’t see it coming to pass; and my doubts may be a function of my complete and total disillusionment with the GOP, but there is also logic and reason to back up my feeling that crazy old Harry Reid will still be ranting about the Koch Brothers as majority leader come 2015. Here’s why:
1. Polls still favor Democrats in individual races – The GOP needs to pick up six seats in order to flip the Senate. The most vulnerable are said to be in red states won by Mitt Romney where vulnerable Democrats are up for re-election or open seats. These states include Alaska, Arkansas, North Carolina, West Virginia, Louisiana, and Montana. According to recent polls, the Republican candidates lead in only two of these states (West Virginia and Montana) and only narrowly. In fact, Democrat candidates are ahead in Georgia and Kentucky; two seats currently held by Republicans. While it’s too early for polls to be definitive, the idea that Republicans are on easy street isn’t supported by current data.
2. Attacks by the Establishment alienate base voters – The Establishment Republicans (who might as well be known as ‘The Junior Democrats’) have been positively gleeful over the defeat of reform candidates like Matt Bevin in Kentucky and Karen Handel in Georgia. The Junior Democrats’ attacks against Chris McDaniel in Mississippi have been especially vile. As a result of the constant attacks on the conservative base by the establishment, GOP voter enthusiasm is down dramatically compared to 2010. Adding to the sense of apathy… item number 3.
3. “Obamacare sucks” is not a compelling platform; especially when they don’t plan to repeal it – The entire Republican campaign strategy is expressed in two words: “Obamacare sucks.” One might infer that the GOP Establishment intends to appeal that terrible law that is causing so much suffering. But, in reality, the GOP Leadership has no intention of repealing Obamacare. The GOP has no agenda for repealing Obamacare, for undoing Obama’s EPA regulations, for restoring fiscal solvency, or for creating jobs. There is no GOP agenda for anyone to vote for, unless you’re a fan of Amnesty — the only thing the GOP leadership really cares about.
4. The Democrats have perfected their scorched Earth and Get-Out-the-Low-Information-Voters techniques – The Republicans are still playing old politics; run some ads, make some speeches, robocall likely voters 4,000 times on their land lines. Meanwhile, Democrats are firing up their base with outrageously vicious attack ads, getting to their dim-witted, Government-dependent voters through entertainment and social media and making sure the Democrat fraud machine can still turn out 120% of the vote in Democrat-controlled precincts.
At the end of the day, if this election boils down to Senior Democrats versus Junior Democrats, you have to bet on the Senior Democrats; they may be vile, corrupt, and horrible but they know how to “win” elections.