The Media/Establishment consensus seems to be that losing two major issues at the Supreme Court (Obamacare and Gay Marriage) was actually *good* for Republicans. If the SCOTUS had held Obamacare to the actual language of the law and struck down the subsidies, Republicans would have quickly restored them; all the while trying to pretend that they weren’t really saving Obamacare. Gay marriage is now “off the table,” the “know-betters” tell us, and this is also good for Republicans.
No, it isn’t. Here’s why.
Imagine there were two restaurants in town, the Democrat Bistro and Cafe Republican. Imagine that the two restaurants were basically the same, except that Cafe Republican serves red meat and Democrat Bistro removed it from their menu back in the 90’s and has become increasingly vegetarian ever since. Cafe Republican has been told for years it needs to stop serving meat to be competitive with the Democrat Bistro. In fact, the Yelp reviews for Cafe Republican are filled with bad reviews, mostly from customers of the Democrat Bistro, most of them attacking Cafe Republican for serving red meat.
So, finally, Cafe Republican relents and takes meat (i.e. Social Conservatism) off the menu. And they won’t replace it with anything else, they’re just taking it off the menu.
If you were customer at Cafe Republican and meat was your main reason for eating there, why would you keep eating there?
And suppose Cafe Republican kept promising you that they would replace the meat on its menu with something you would like just as much, but instead they just copied stuff off the Democrat Bistro menu; claiming it was necessary to bring in Democrat Bistro customers.
If you were a customer at the Democrat Bistro, why would you switch to Cafe Republican?
Is the metaphor obvious enough?
The GOP has a very discouraged base because their Senate and House majorities have done little but advance the Democrat agenda; fully funding Obamacare, fully funding Executive Amnesty, confirming all of Obama’s appointments, and granting Obama unlimited trade authority. A Democrat Congress would have done exactly the same thing.
Further, the social conservative segment of the base may well decide “why bother?” It’s bad enough fighting for a lost cause; but when a former ally becomes neutral, there’s no point in being on their team.
So, social conservatives abandon the GOP. The GOP thinks this isn’t a problem because they’ll be replaced with moderates and maybe some Democrats. So far, in the northeast and California, it hasn’t worked out that way.