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Did Hillary lose by being a warmonger?

My intuition has long said yes. I mean, Hillary’s support for destroying Libya and Syria and creating aggressive confrontation with Russia is part of why I don’t like her. People who want peace seem to have preferred Trump, in 2016.

Last week, a new study came out which showed that Hillary may have lost PA, MI, WI by being a warmonger.

A new study attributes Donald Trump’s victory last year to communities hit hardest by military casualties and angry about being ignored. These voters, the authors suggest, saw Trump as an “opportunity to express that anger at both political parties.”…

The study…found a “significant and meaningful relationship between a community’s rate of military sacrifice and its support for Trump.” The statistical model it used suggested that if Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin had suffered “even a modestly lower casualty rate,” all three could have flipped to Hillary Clinton… “Trump significantly outperformed Romney in counties that shouldered a disproportionate share of the war burden in Iraq and Afghanistan.”

“America has been at war continuously for over 15 years, but few Americans seem to notice,” Kriner and Shen write. “This is because the vast majority of citizens have no direct connection to those soldiers fighting, dying, and returning wounded from combat.”



  1. I’m not certain but I would assume areas with military bases, with military families typically vote Republican though not always. They see public service as literal service to the country, not lip service or self-service (things in which Mrs. Clinton specializes). Did Mrs. Clinton’s record as SoS help her case? Not sure. It may have helped among those who were determined to vote for her, those who would ignore the very real problems with her record as such, the problems we would use against her in our decision. Libya is one of the reasons I voted against her; not because I’m a pacifist or that I think military action should always be the last resort but because the Obama administration (and Mrs. Clinton especially) screwed that up so royally that documentaries and Hollywood films will be made about it for years, beginning some time after Mrs. Clinton dies.

    Comment by Ignatius — July 13, 2017 @ 5:19 pm - July 13, 2017

  2. The point of the study is that these communities went for Trump more than they went for Romney, in a way that mapped to their military casualty rates, even after many other possible factors were corrected for.

    Of course, I can’t guarantee that the study is perfect.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — July 13, 2017 @ 5:26 pm - July 13, 2017

  3. Tthe article describes the study in terms of non-intervention. I doubt that’s necessarily a positive considering other control factors. (Military families know the risks of service.) Clinton’s record is one of incompetence and self-service; I don’t think it’s intervention vs. non except in the context of either being employed for reasons convenience, for image, they had no idea what they were doing, etc.

    Comment by Ignatius — July 13, 2017 @ 5:36 pm - July 13, 2017

  4. “Dura data; sed data.”

    My kitchen Latin-to-English translation:

    “Data is harsh; data becomes a b[eeeeeeep!] when you count among the self-delusional leftist morons.”

    Comment by Cyril — July 13, 2017 @ 6:25 pm - July 13, 2017

  5. More seriously; the study points out a very plausible factor, AFAICT.

    Other plausible factors include:

    first or second generation (read: likely tax paying) legal latino immigrants / new citizens seeing floods of their illegal cousins coming in thanks to an increasing number of sanctuary cities they had to leave because of becoming unaffordable unless you make either 6 figures a year (excusive OR) the welfare state-blessed absolute ZERO;

    blacks old enough to remember the taste of a Clinton in the WH in the 90s, and after 8 years of His Democrat Majesty Obama, seeing the neighborhoods being emptied of sustaining at a dangerously 2 times faster pace than their single moms file for foodstamps and other section 8 goodies;

    the condescending, smug, or downright hateful attitude of the Democrat Elites, their Interested Pundits, and Obedient Shills have for the rest of the Middle and Working Class America, especially when they’re not government employees;

    wages of the latter going nowhere while healthcare costs have almost doubled and with an official price inflation below 2% insulting the intelligence of anyone doing their groceries themselves and literate enough to be able to read the bottom line of their receipts;

    etc, etc.

    No doubt there is still some self-preservation instinct common sense alive in Donald J. Trump’s America.

    But still, judging today’s left’s angry despondence and rage, thiis country still has only a vague idea of what sort of bullet she dodged on 11/08/2016. Just IMHO.

    Comment by Cyril — July 13, 2017 @ 6:56 pm - July 13, 2017

  6. * being emptied of sustaining, self-reliant fathers

    Comment by Cyril — July 13, 2017 @ 6:58 pm - July 13, 2017

  7. I think Americans have begun to question why our large expensive military can’t quickly resolve wars, why we get stuck in quagmire after quagmire and they are concluding this has nothing to do with the competence of our military but with the preferences of our civilian “leadership.”

    Comment by V the K — July 13, 2017 @ 7:40 pm - July 13, 2017

  8. Iggy – Fair point; these military-family communities may have viewed Corrupt Hillary as a specially poor choice for Commander in Chief, apart from any preference for non-intervention as such.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — July 13, 2017 @ 8:35 pm - July 13, 2017

  9. Whether it’s the limousine liberal Democrats or the finger bowl Republicans, the Deep State coastal elite are always willing to go to war. They and their children have never been in the military, and they don’t care about those deplorable working class people who will do the fighting (and dying) in what usually turns out to be a rich man’s war and a poor man’s fight.

    The working class people in flyover country tend to be patriotic and willing to serve in the armed forces. They are for a strong national defense. But Americans are instinctively isolationist, and they are suspicious of claims that we need to send troops to the Middle East or the Balkans or Southeast Asia to intervene in the civil war of some country that you could not even find on a map.

    Comment by Tom — July 13, 2017 @ 8:53 pm - July 13, 2017

  10. “a new study came out which showed that Hillary may have lost pa, mi, wi by being a warmonger. that’s a damn lie! everyone knows she lost because the Russians “hacked” the election. by the way don’t expect to see this story in the democrat party-media complex.

    Comment by salg — July 13, 2017 @ 9:38 pm - July 13, 2017

  11. Anyway.

    Either that or maybe she forgot to renew her expired…

    … Victim Card?

    Comment by Cyril — July 14, 2017 @ 1:57 am - July 14, 2017

  12. New Jersey has three military bases and as most people with half a brain know we are not a large state. We are however very much in the tank for Democrats and Socialism. God help us or somebody needs to help us.

    Comment by fortdixmike — July 14, 2017 @ 4:31 am - July 14, 2017

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