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  1. While I’d love to believe you, the rationale has a big flaw – there will be some voters who move from McCain to Obama. I know, because I know a handful – reliable Democrats who voted for McCain because they were Clintonites in the primaries, and were familiar with and generally liked McCain.

    Granted, I don’t think it’s going to approach anywhere near 10%, but it might get to around 5%.

    One additional thing is turnout – I expect some non-voters in 2008 to turn out for Romney this time around, while in general a lesser turnout for Obama.

    If I had to guess, right now, I see a 51-49 race for Romney, with Romney winning Ohio 52-48, and one other swing state to win the election with something like 285 electoral votes. My guess is CO and NH end up in the Romney camp, with WI and IA too close to call.

    I see NV going to Obama, with PA, MI and MI firmly in Obama’s camp (wins by 5 pts or more).

    Comment by CenterRightMargin — November 2, 2012 @ 5:51 pm - November 2, 2012

  2. Romney is going to have a bigger turnout then many expect he’s going to get a lot of Social Cons who didn’t vote for McCain in 2008.

    Comment by Catseye — November 2, 2012 @ 6:46 pm - November 2, 2012

  3. I think your percentage for Romney is way too high. I think the race will be closer. I still think Obama might win.

    I think PA is likely to still go for Obama-however I agree that if they don’t call it early, it very well may be colored red come Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. I also think if Romney wins PA he likely has the election. While I think Obama can afford to lose some states, I think it is a bad sign if he loses PA. I actually think it may be a bad sign if he still takes PA but it is too close to call before the wee hours of the morning.

    Comment by Just Me — November 2, 2012 @ 7:07 pm - November 2, 2012

  4. [...] Actual Voting Numbers & “Math Is Hard”:Predicting Tuesday’s Outcome [...]

    Pingback by GayPatriot » Dan’s New Math for Election Forecasting — November 2, 2012 @ 7:32 pm - November 2, 2012

  5. Obama cannot mathematically win without Pennsylvania. Assuming FL, IN & NC go to Romney.

    Comment by Bruce (GayPatriot) — November 2, 2012 @ 7:48 pm - November 2, 2012

  6. Funny how some people describe themselves as conservatives and vote for Obama. If anyone voted for Obama in 2008, they aren’t a conservative. If anyone votes for him again in 2012, they definitely aren’t a conservative.

    Comment by Jerry — November 2, 2012 @ 10:41 pm - November 2, 2012

  7. If they describe themselves as Conservative & still vote for Obama, they are not Conservative at all. They’re delusional liars.

    Comment by Sebastian Shaw — November 3, 2012 @ 9:54 am - November 3, 2012

  8. To take an example of such delusional liars: Andrew Sullivan. But we already knew that.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 3, 2012 @ 11:14 am - November 3, 2012

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