GayPatriot

Comments

RSS feed for comments on this post.

The URI to TrackBack this entry is: http://www.gaypatriot.net/2012/11/02/dans-new-math-for-election-forecasting/trackback/

  1. I’d like to see Romney win something like, oh, 95% of the vote, carrying DC and all fifty states. But it would be funny to see Obama lose the election while receiving exactly 47% of the vote.

    Comment by chad — November 2, 2012 @ 7:43 pm - November 2, 2012

  2. Going into the weekend things are looking good for Barack Obama. Not terribly different than they looked mid-week or a week ago. But there are a slew of polls which show either a confirmation of his relatively strong position in key states or the slightest move in his direction. And with that we’re starting to see the first take from those who’ve spent the last weeks either unskewing the polls or flagging the Romney-mentum.

    So what is it? Easy. Obama was losing. But Hurricane Sandy turned out to be the anti-Unicorn, the Romney-slayer that killed Romn-mentum and pushed Barack Obama over the finish line, even though he was losing and deserved to lose and was also socialist.”

    Comment by Passing By — November 2, 2012 @ 9:26 pm - November 2, 2012

  3. Passing By, I’ll grant that Hurricane Sandy gave Obama a quick boost, but how can a boost like that last when we’re reading of gas rationing in New Jersey and delayed relief in Staten Island? These stories are getting out there. No, Obama’s not to blame for them. But, they’ll remind voters that Obama showed himself to be in charge — and still problems persist.

    An issue of perception.

    The latest Washington Post tracking poll shows movement away from Obama and toward Romney.

    Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — November 2, 2012 @ 9:32 pm - November 2, 2012

  4. Everyone knows Talking Points Memo is renowned for their objective, unbiased, non-partisan examination of the political arena.

    Comment by Passing Gas — November 2, 2012 @ 10:38 pm - November 2, 2012

  5. “The latest Washington Post tracking poll shows movement away from Obama and toward Romney”
    have a margin of error of three percentage points.

    3 hours ago
    CNN Poll: Obama 50% – Romney 47% in Ohio

    “If, as the polling averages anticipate, Obama carries Ohio on Tuesday (and, in effect, the election)…”

    The survey’s sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

    ????

    a 82.7% chance of winning

    “Everyone knows [National Review] [Gay Patriot] [insert here] is renowned for their objective, unbiased, non-partisan examination of the political arena.”

    Comment by Passing By — November 2, 2012 @ 11:49 pm - November 2, 2012

  6. Everyone knows every mainstream media outlet is covering for their Benghazi boyfriend. Yep, no bias there.

    Comment by Annie — November 3, 2012 @ 12:11 am - November 3, 2012

  7. “I predict that if d-D win, [insert here] and the rest of the Right will seek to discredit the actual votes… based on the polls.”

    ????

    “That’s right. My prediction is that these people … will want to put their own, manufactured, echo-chamber garbage polls ahead of the actual votes of the American people.”

    ??????

    “Until then, everybody is just cherry-picking polls and analysis to shore up their side. Except me, of course“.

    Comment by Passing By — November 3, 2012 @ 6:09 am - November 3, 2012

  8. This election is going to give me ulcers.

    The polls are all over the place, but I think Romney looks confident and is staying positive. Obama and his team look down and desperate.

    My gut tells me the internal polls for these men are saying Romney has momentum, Obama doesn’t.

    I still think either man can win come Tuesday and the biggest key is going to be turnout. Whoever gets more of their voters to the polls wins.

    Comment by Just Me — November 3, 2012 @ 8:20 am - November 3, 2012

  9. We won’t know until Wednesday (we hope) what the truth of the matter is. Until then, everybody is just cherry-picking polls and analysis to shore up their side. Except me, of course.

    Comment by V the K — November 3, 2012 @ 8:52 am - November 3, 2012

  10. Personally, I would love to see all the polls be terribly wrong this year and the polling profession discredited for all time; discussions about right and wrong are far more interesting than discussions about who’s winning the poll contests.

    Comment by V the K — November 3, 2012 @ 9:04 am - November 3, 2012

  11. I predict that if r-R win, PB and the rest of the Left will seek to discredit the actual votes… based on the polls.

    That’s right. My prediction is that these people are so corrupt, intellectually and morally, that they will want to put their own, manufactured, echo-chamber garbage polls ahead of the actual votes of the American people.

    Comment by ILoveCapitalism — November 3, 2012 @ 11:10 am - November 3, 2012

  12. ILC, one thing you can take to the bank is that if R^2 wins, the left will not engage in a prolonged round of soul-searching about how badly out-of-touch they and their ideas are with the electorate and reality itself.

    Comment by V the K — November 3, 2012 @ 11:57 am - November 3, 2012

  13. Just Me, I too have noticed the same thing re: candidate appearances. You’re right, it all comes down to turnout.

    Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — November 3, 2012 @ 12:05 pm - November 3, 2012

Leave a comment

Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

**Note: Your first comment is held for moderation. Avoid profanity, avoid personal attacks on fellow commenters, and avoid complaining about personal attacks (even on you). Feel free to disagree with anyone, but focus on their ideas; give us the information that you think they overlooked.**


Live preview of comment

Close this window.

0.233 Powered by Wordpress