GayPatriot

Comments

RSS feed for comments on this post.

The URI to TrackBack this entry is: http://www.gaypatriot.net/2012/11/04/presidential-race-tied-in-pennsylvania/trackback/

  1. My argument, rather, is this: we’ve about reached the point where if Mr. Romney wins, it can only be because the polls have been biased against him. Almost all of the chance that Mr. Romney has in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, about 16 percent to win the Electoral College, reflects this possibility.

    Yes, of course: most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking.

    Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the leader in the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.

    But the state polls may not be right. They could be biased. Based on the historical reliability of polls, we put the chance that they will be biased enough to elect Mr. Romney at 16 percent.”

    Comment by Passing By — November 4, 2012 @ 2:22 am - November 4, 2012

  2. Passing By, instead of quoting Nate Silver, why don’t you just respond to the post to which you have attached your comment.

    Here, we show a state poll suggesting that Pennsylvania could very well go Republican.

    Comment by B. Daniel Blatt — November 4, 2012 @ 2:26 am - November 4, 2012

  3. If the campaigns looked like they did four years ago, with all the enthusiasm on the Obama side, then I would say yes, it’s simply wishful thinking to believe the polls are all wrong. However, consider that:

    1) Gallup and Rasmussen have both picked up a large shift toward the GOP on voter registration and yet a number of state and national polls assume basically the same partisan composition as the 2008 electorate.
    2) Obama crowds have significantly dwindled vs. 2008, and many of Obama’s events are at college campuses where it’s easier to draw an audience. Romney is consistently drawing much larger crowds.
    3) The Obama campaign scoffs at the Romney campaigns invasion of blue wall states, but they’ve followed Romney in. The Obama campaign wouldn’t waste its time and money in MN, WI, MI, and PA if it weren’t worried. Conversely, VA, FL, and NC are less in the news.
    4) On FB, pretty much all of my Obama-supporting friends just talk about how awful Romney is rather than talking about how great Obama has been in the last four years and how great Obama will be in the next four.
    5) The biggest election we had so far this year was the Wisconsin recall. Scott Walker easily outperformed the average recall poll in his victory. In other words, pollsters underestimated Republican enthusiasm.

    Is it possible that all the polls are right and that Obama wins? Sure. But there’s been so much volatility over the last few years, I’m not sure that pollsters really know what to expect on who will actually turn out to vote. Pres. Obama will need to rely heavily on unenthusiastic voters who nevertheless come out on Tuesday.

    Comment by chad — November 4, 2012 @ 8:19 am - November 4, 2012

  4. I think in general Obama has the electoral advantage, because he has the vast majority of large population/large electoral vote states in his column without even having to break a sweat. Nobody expects California or New York to break for Romney-it probably won’t even be close in those states. Obama just has more paths to victory and more states he can afford to lose-but at some point even for Obama he would have to stop the bleeding.

    I do think the fact that Romney is polling well in some traditional blue states is a positive.

    In NH I have noticed there isn’t much enthusiasm for Obama. Even people with yard signs for various down ticket candidates, there isn’t always an Obama one included in their midst. Most yard signs around here are for Romney. I was hard pressed in 2008 to find a McCain yard sign.

    I think the Romney campaign looks and acts positive and it doesn’t appear to be a game face. Obama has acted like a petulant child for the last few weeks. He has been short tempered and peevish. Obama’s behavior tells me some of the internals may be stressing him out.

    In 2008 Obama cakewalked to the presidency with adoring worshipers fawning over him. In 2012 he is going to limp to victory if he pulls it off.

    I still think this is very close, and I still think Obama has a lot of advantages, but I also think the pollsters are overly optimistic about democratic turnout. I see a lot more enthusiasm with regards to Romney than I do Obama. Turn out will be the key and if Romney wins, most pollsters will immediately know why Romney won and Obama lost-because they predicted a larger turnout for democrats than actually turned out. I am not a pollster or a statistician and I could tell you that.

    The narrative for the democrats however will be “the GOP stole the election because they suppressed the vote with their mean voter ID laws.” Then they will point to all those polls with Obama in the lead as evidence.

    Comment by Just Me — November 4, 2012 @ 8:58 am - November 4, 2012

  5. Quoting Nate Silver? In hip hop parlance, [edited] please.

    Comment by Bastiat Fan — November 4, 2012 @ 11:59 am - November 4, 2012

  6. “Here, we show a state poll suggesting that Pennsylvania could very well go Republican.”

    Tipping Point States

    The probability that a state provides the decisive electoral vote.
    Pa. 2.8%

    Comment by Passing By — November 5, 2012 @ 12:32 pm - November 5, 2012

Leave a comment

Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

**Note: Your first comment is held for moderation. Avoid profanity, avoid personal attacks on fellow commenters, and avoid complaining about personal attacks (even on you). Feel free to disagree with anyone, but focus on their ideas; give us the information that you think they overlooked.**


Live preview of comment

Close this window.

0.119 Powered by Wordpress