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  1. My October surprises, to be announced Monday (Nov 4) when the Dems and the media really really feel it’s in the bag….
    *BHO announces Rev Wright will be the new administrations Ambassador to the Vatican.
    *The defense department will be abolished and Bill Ayers will be nominated as the first Secretary of the Dept of PEACE.
    *It leaks out that three of the most liberal justices of the Supreme Court will retire and BHO will nominate Bill, Hillary AND Chelsea to take their places.

    Comment by Gene in Pennsylvania — October 31, 2008 @ 2:28 pm - October 31, 2008

  2. One reason I’m thinking we have to be optimisitc: this election is largely young vs. old, esp. the election for POTUS. Often the age divide is young=Dem and old=GOP, but this year it is especially so, perhaps because the age difference between the two candidates is so significant. Older people are much more reliable than the young at actually showing up and tend not to stay home just because they think the race is in the bag. Now, I do believe the youth vote will be bigger than it has ever been, but I’m pretty the polls all have taken that into account, so even a huge youth turnout may be underwhelming for Obama if it doesn’t match the high expecations pollsters have. And why might the youth disappoint? Because the MSM has told them Obama has it in the bag, so many of them might not feel the need to vote, and also because Obama’s flare has subsided since February; he may still be the youth’s candidate, but I don’t think he walks on water in many people’s minds anymore. Yes, I think he is going to get unprecedented youth support, but I think there are still going to be huge numbers of young voters who don’t think he’s worth the trouble of going to the polls for.

    Also, GOP turnout will be really high. The Palin pick, our knowledge of Obama’s leftism, and fear of an Obama-Reid-Pelosi axis of suckiness are going to bring huge numbers of Republicans and right-leaning independents to the polls. Sure, Palin turns off some people who might otherwise vote for McCain, but I think Palin hatred on the part of average Americans is largely a myth created by the media. On balance, she is a huge net plus to the McCain campaign and the GOP in general. (It’s interesting how committed liberals like Alec Baldwin and Tina Fey, who have both met her, have nicer things to say about her than supposedly conservative pundits who haven’t met her.)

    Also, a survey I recently saw showed that McCain voters are less willing to agree to long surveys, and it wasn’t by a small margin. Perhaps when pollsters are calling people, those unwilling to be surveyed are disproportionately McCain voters. Even adjusting for party ID, one could surmise that Obama-supporting members of one party are more likely than McCain-supporting members of one party to answer the survey. If this is the case, McCain’s support among Democrats is understated and Obama’s support among Republicans is overstated. The question, of course, is how significant is this effect.

    It should not be a big surprise if the GOP significantly beats expectations, holding their own or even gaining seats in the House, not losing more than four Senate seats, and keeping the White House. The MSM keeps on telling us GWB is unpopular. Yes, we know. But the MSM much more rarely mentions the unpopularity of congressional Dems. GOP turnout was obviously low two years ago. This year, it won’t be. Plus, we have a candidate who may not be particularly exciting and yet I think he would fit most people’s definition of acceptable. The MSM may try to pretend that McCain is just like Bush, but I think plenty of independents and Democrats remember how recently McCain was the MSM’s favorite Republican and they will struggle to understand why he is now so horrible in the eyes of the media. They will look at McCain as a safe choice and Obama as a huge risk.

    To make a long story short, I think McCain will do much better than the polls suggest. If Obama wins, it won’t be by any larger margin than Bush beat Kerry. I think it will be close, and I think there’s a good chance the winner won’t have one the popular vote. I could easily be wrong, but if I were a betting man and had some money to put on the line, I’d go to InTrade and put it on McCain.

    Comment by cme — October 31, 2008 @ 4:54 pm - October 31, 2008

  3. McCain is not only going to win the election, he is going to trounce Obama and make everyone second guess the polling data from the past 6 months.

    Trust me, the polling data is grossly flawed. Many of the polling organizations have very relative ideas about who likely voters are. They do this every election cycle but it’s particularly bad this time around. I was listening to a spokesperson from Zogby on the radio admit that they are putting more stock in traditionally paltry voting demographics because the pollsters assume that Obama will energize them like never before. The specific groups he was referring to were Blacks, Latinos and voters between the ages of 18-24. Their voting registration population turnout percentages are 25%, 20% and 15%, respectively. Zobgy was expecting those figures to at least double due to Obama. Recent early voting demographic data from Nevada show the folling turnout percentages:

    Black 25%
    Hispanic 20%
    Voters between the ages of 18-30 (notice how pollsters have bumped up the youth vote from 24 to 30 since 2000.) 13%.

    In other words, there are no discernible changes in percentages. This does not bode well for the Dems.

    Serves the Dems right to rely on teenagers for anything.

    Comment by Right Turn — October 31, 2008 @ 6:02 pm - October 31, 2008

  4. It will probably be easy to know how the night will go, since how well McCain does in New Hampshire, Penn. and Virgina, will tell us how the election went. If McCain does better than expected in any of those states then it is likely Obama underperformed and lost the race. This is the typical cycle, Obama always fades out in the end when undecides come out and vote against him. This is how he lost New Hampshire when polls had him up by 5 to 10 poits. This is how he lost on Super Tuesday when some polls had him winning states like Califorina and NJ. It went on in Ohio and Penn, and the rest is history.

    I wonder if he can win on the black vote alone, cause the youth vote is not going to be there for him. It will be larger than in 04 but not a great surge in the overall percentage, I see all groups coming out in greater numbers than before. I wouldn’t have depend on them and I am one.

    Comment by Darkeyedresolve — October 31, 2008 @ 6:50 pm - October 31, 2008

  5. Well, GPW, living here deep in Blue California, the Obamacult seems to have taken a stranglehold. Many signs, bumper stickers and the like. And, the Democrat Field Poll The One up 55% to 33% against Sen. McCain. That is a lot of undecideds. And, just how strong are those 55% FOR Obama? My big surprise is that John McCain does better in California than George W. Bush did twice. Won’t win, but probabaly get about 47% of the vote. Another big surprise. Sen. McCain WILL win Pennsylvania. And, win the presidency. Sununu will keep his New Hampshire senate seat. If I have more surprises, I will be back!

    Comment by Mark J. Goluskin — October 31, 2008 @ 7:47 pm - October 31, 2008

  6. Speaking of Joisey, watch the liberals pull a Torricelli, Sunday night, and insert Hill-dog.

    There’s your October Surprise.

    Comment by ThatGayConservative — November 1, 2008 @ 12:03 am - November 1, 2008

  7. As far as signs and stickers go, I’ve seen more McCain signs around town (Lakeland, FL.) than Comrade Obama. However, I’ve seen about an even number of bumper stickers from each. The funny thing is that in 2000 & 2004, you saw Bush stickers everywhere.

    Without looking at any data, my guess is that Rep. Adam Putnam is a shoe in.

    Comment by ThatGayConservative — November 1, 2008 @ 2:24 am - November 1, 2008

  8. I never thought the race was over, and still don’t. It still looks like Obama will win, but McCain should also prepare a victory speech just in case.

    Comment by Pat — November 1, 2008 @ 8:38 am - November 1, 2008

  9. This year we get a pleasant November Surprise: President-elect John McCain.

    Darkeyedresolve- I hope you’re right. If McCain does take New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia, those results should be available relatively early — though I think all results will be delayed by the extraordinary turnout.

    My fear is that it comes down to Ohio, where the counting and recounting goes on and on, with battles over every provisional ballot, and such.

    Comment by Clint — November 1, 2008 @ 2:43 pm - November 1, 2008

  10. As someone who studied political statistics under one of the best professors in the South (won’t give his name for security reasons), here’s why I think the polls are flawed:

    1. In CA (as Dan will attest), early voter turnout for the gay marriage prop is exceeding pre-election expectations, especially given the fact that a slim majority of these voters are Republicans.

    2. Both The Snob and McCain are in Iowa – a state that The Snob won handily. Why is he there if it is not a shoe-in?

    3. Voters going in to unseat Murtha in PA are not going to vote for The Snob. Plus, even Fast Eddie Rendell has stated that “it will be close.” Not exactly a vote of confidence for his party.

    4. For OH voters, three words: Joe the Plumber. Enough said.

    5. FL voters are also going to the polls early (see post above).

    All I’m going to say is that MSNBC and the rest of the MSM in the tank for The Snob will be on suicide watch on Tuesday.

    Regards,
    Peter H.

    Comment by Peter Hughes — November 1, 2008 @ 6:23 pm - November 1, 2008

  11. [...] Electoral Surprises? October Surprise? We’ve heard of the woes of Pennsylvania Democrat John Murtha so his defeat, while welcome, wouldn’t be that much of a surprise. [...]

    Pingback by Democrat On Best Political Blogs » Blog Archive » Electoral Surprises? October Surprise? — November 5, 2008 @ 5:58 am - November 5, 2008

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